Among the many Afghans desperate to flee their country since the Taliban seized power in August were 20 members of an all-female Afghan robotics team, better known as the “Afghan Dreamers.” The team, which had garnered global attention for its achievements since 2017, had been pleading with the international community to evacuate them. One of the first countries to signal an interest in resettling the girls was Qatar. The Gulf country not only ensured that most of the team safely landed in Doha but also granted them scholarships to pursue their education.
In fact, Qatar’s gesture of accommodating the “Afghan Dreamers” was one of the many initiatives taken by the emirate in an effort to increase its influence in Afghanistan. So far, Qatar has facilitated the evacuation of more than 40,000 people from Kabul and vowed to continue its efforts to get more people out of the country. Currently, Qatar is at the forefront of aiding the United States (US) in the airlift of hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees. As per reports, nearly 40% of all refugees were moved out via Qatar, which has been attracting international plaudits for its exploits.
Furthermore, Qatar continues to deliver much-needed humanitarian and food assistance to Afghanistan. Just last week, Qatar supplied about 188 tonnes of food and medical supplies to Afghanistan, bringing its total financial contribution to the war-torn country since August to almost $50 million.
As part of its push for greater influence in Afghanistan, Qatar has also been seeking closer ties with the Taliban. Qatar began directly engaging with the Taliban in 2013, when the militants established a diplomatic office in Doha to participate in direct talks with the US. Ever since then, Qatar has played a crucial role in facilitating negotiations between the US and the Taliban and was instrumental in getting both sides to sign the 2020 Doha Agreement, under which the US agreed to completely withdraw its troops by 2021.
While much of the world has shunned the extremists, Qatar has taken a more balanced approach to dealing with the group. On September 12, Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani visited Kabul in the highest-level foreign visit to Afghanistan since the Taliban seized power. Al-Thani called on the militants to “involve all Afghan parties in national reconciliation” and urged them to respect women’s rights.
Doha has also expressed interest in maintaining the Kabul airport and restoring passenger flights and has been engaged in intense talks with the Taliban over the issue. While the Taliban is yet to make any official statement regarding foreign involvement in managing the airport, it has quietly welcomed Qatar’s efforts. This was seen when the airport reopened to receive aid shipments and resumed domestic flights this month with Qatar’s help.
Notably, the Taliban has sought to increase its engagement with Doha and, as an extension of its goodwill, invited Qatari officials for the inauguration of its new government. Qatar’s financial might could be a reason why the Taliban is eager to maintain friendly ties with the emirate. Right now, the main priority for the Taliban is to keep its revenue streams flowing. The Afghan economy is facing a crisis, and the West has cut off aid to Afghanistan and frozen most of the country’s assets. Since Qatar has a history of financing Islamist groups in the Middle East, including the Muslim Brotherhood, the Taliban could be pinning its hopes on Qatar as a major source of revenue. In return, Qatar’s push for influence in Afghanistan could translate into valuable diplomatic, military, and economic gains for Doha.
For instance, a greater role in Afghanistan could give Qatar more regional influence, especially at a time when relations with neighbouring countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), are yet to fully recover from the 2017 Gulf Cooperation (GCC) crisis. In 2017, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as well as other GCC members severed ties with Qatar over its alleged support of terrorists and its closeness to Iran.
Moreover, the Saudis and the Emiratis now wield considerably less influence over the Taliban today than they used to during the late 1990s. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were two of only three countries to recognise the Taliban during its first stint in power, and Riyadh is believed to have provided the Taliban with billions in aid. However, with a push towards liberalisation of its economy and society, both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have been gradually distancing themselves from Islamist elements. In this context, it is not surprising that Qatar is filling the void left by its neighbours in Afghanistan.
Increasing influence in Afghanistan could also allow it to strengthen and build new regional alliances, such as with Turkey and Iran. For instance, Qatar and Turkey are cooperating on restoring and providing security to the Kabul airport. As per reports, Qatari and Turkish technicians have already begun restoration work at the airport. Likewise, Qatari and Iranian diplomats have been meeting regularly to discuss the crisis in Afghanistan. Given that Iran shares a border with Afghanistan, it would be keen to prevent any spillover of the conflict from its neighbour. In this respect, Qatar could act as a mediator in any talks between Iran and the Taliban.
Aside from an expanding regional footprint, there is also the promise of enhancing its international reputation. Qatar’s role in finalising the US-Taliban agreement could lead to the US relying more on the Gulf country to facilitate future negotiations with the Taliban. Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken showered praises on Qatari officials for facilitating talks between the US, the Taliban, and the Afghan government and for trying to bring the conflict to a “peaceful resolution.” Additionally, US President Joe Biden “expressed appreciation” for Qatar’s role in facilitating evacuations and “intra-Afghanistan talks.” According to Ben Hubbard of The New York Times, Washington’s reliance on Doha could be because of its “good relations with outliers like the Taliban and Iran,” which has made the country “invaluable as a go-between” in negotiations for the US.
Closer ties with the US also brings with it the possibility of securing advanced military equipment. According to the US State Department, Washington has “authorised the permanent export of over $2.8 billion in defence articles to Qatar via the Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) process.” Additionally, Qatar is the US’ second largest Foreign Military Sales (FMS) partner; recent FMS sales include the Patriot missile system, F-15 fighter jets, and early warning radar systems. At a time when the US has put a temporary freeze on arms sales to Saudi Arabia over alleged human rights violations, Qatar is likely to be careful to remain in the good graces of America by demonstrating its growing influence in Afghanistan and its ability to influence the policies of the Taliban.
Moreover, positioning itself as a key player in Afghanistan serves as another reminder of its growing influence across the region at large as an international mediator. Alongside Afghanistan, Qatar is simultaneously involved in talks with Israel over providing aid to Gaza, has expressed interest in participating in the Iran nuclear deal talks, and has even provided aid to the Lebanese military amid Lebanon’s economic catastrophe. The Gulf country is also mediating disputes in Yemen, Sudan and Ethiopia, and Somalia.
Finally, Qatar’s efforts to strengthen its influence in Afghanistan could provide it with an opportunity to deflect international attention from its human rights abuses at home, particularly its treatment of migrant workers involved in the construction of stadiums for next year’s FIFA World Cup. By hosting the “Afghan Dreamers” and calling on the Taliban to respect women’s rights as well as bringing in partial labour reforms, Qatar aims to convince the international community that it respects human rights.
In sum, despite its small geographical size, Qatar exerts significant influence in determining the course of events in many disputes. With regards to Afghanistan, Doha is flexing its economic muscle in a bid to gain more political capital. Greater influence in Afghanistan and closer ties with the Taliban means a greater ability for Qatar to increase its regional and global credentials.
What is Qatar’s Endgame in Afghanistan?
It is likely that Qatar will increase its push for influence in Afghanistan and seek closer ties with the Taliban as it could translate into diplomatic, military, and economic gains for Doha.
September 15, 2021
A Qatar Airways aircraft taking off from the airport in Kabul, Aug. 14, 2021. SOURCE: AFP