With United States (US) and NATO troops continuing to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban has secured control over a majority of the country’s regions, raising concern about the security void the allied troops are leaving behind. Against this backdrop, several regional and international powers have vowed to assist the Afghan people, security forces, and government through mechanisms primarily focused on welcoming asylum-seekers and providing humanitarian aid. However, a unique proposal that has been floated in the past few months is the possibility of Turkish forces coming in to assist Afghan security forces. Last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pledged to replace US troops in protecting the Hamid Karzai International Airport. Against this backdrop, it becomes crucial to explore what Turkey’s motivations are.
The Hamid Karzai International Airport is of great significance to the international community and Afghanistan, serving as a gateway for diplomatic assistance and humanitarian aid. Given its importance, it has been the target of multiple attacks, with the deadliest coming in 2018 in an attack on erstwhile Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum in 2018. The IS claimed responsibility for the attack that left nearly 80 injured. Acknowledging the threat faced by the strategic airport, during his meeting with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the NATO meeting in June, Erdoğan discussed the possibility of deploying Turkish troops to protect the airport following the withdrawal of US troops. Towards the end of July, Biden and Erdoğan agreed on a plan and the exact “scope” of the Turkish forces’ role in protecting the location.
Erdoğan can now use this as an opportunity to fix Turkey’s fraying ties with the US and other NATO allies. Over the past few years, Turkey’s relations with the West have hit an all-time low. One critical incident was Turkey’s decision to buy Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missiles, following which the US imposed sanctions on Turkey and several other NATO allies questioned Turkey’s participation in the Organization. In addition, the US has voiced its support for Kurdish forces in Syria, against whom Turkish troops have been blamed for committing atrocities.
Keeping this in mind, the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan offers Turkey an opportunity to fill the void left by US and NATO troops and gain goodwill for acting as a guarantor of security and peace in the war-torn country. As the only Muslim-majority NATO ally and due to its military presence being restricted to non-combat roles, Turkey has had better relations with the Taliban than any other NATO member. In this light, it can use its existing leverage with the Taliban and its closeness with Pakistan to protect the Hamid Karzai International Airport and ensure the security of foreign diplomats and the safe arrival of humanitarian assistance. Apart from mending ties with the US, this also presents Turkey with an avenue to accrue soft power and achieve its long-standing vision of dethroning Saudi Arabia and crowning itself the leader of the Sunni Muslim world.
However, this is easier said than done. Its goodwill with the Taliban stems from Turkish forces’ presence in a solely non-combat role. With this change, there is a possibility that the Taliban changes its stance on its relations with Turkey, specifically in light of the Taliban’s repeated calls for the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan. There have already been indications that Taliban-Turkey relations are beginning to fray. Following Erdoğan’s announcement about the Kabul airport, the Taliban took to Twitter to criticise the Turkish government’s decision, warning of “consequences.” Even before these developments, the Taliban had refused to participate in the Istanbul dialogue in April on the ongoing peace process, which Turkey was then forced to cancel. Hence, with the diminishing leverage with the Taliban, Erdoğan’s attempt to replace US and NATO forces could backfire and result in violence and hostility against Turkish troops in Afghanistan.
Turkey’s entry into the Afghan conflict will also open it up to a host of domestic challenges. Outside of the airport, Afghanistan is now mired in a sea of crises amid what appears to be an impending takeover by the Taliban. The group has already begun using violence as a means to enforce compliance to its strict Islamic principles and oppress minorities. There is also likely to be a backsliding of access to education and work for girls and women. In light of these challenges, many Afghan families are seeking to migrate to Turkey as a passageway into Europe. In fact, there are several videos and pictures circulating of Afghan refugees being brought in from Iran after being smuggled in buses and trucks. Furthermore, while the US has vowed to accept asylum applications of Afghans who worked for American organisations, it has refused to help with their departure from Afghanistan or to host them through the long-drawn process. Hence, individuals fleeing the Taliban-led violence could inadvertently be pushed to migrate to Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey while awaiting an invitation from the US government.
Therefore, Erdoğan must anticipate strong pushback from key opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s Republic People’s Party (CHP). Kılıçdaroğlu has previously criticised the Erdoğan government for signing the 2016 agreement with the European Union (EU), through which it agreed to house refugees attempting to enter the bloc in exchange for financial aid worth billions of dollars. Furthermore, Erdoğan also believes that the deal provides Turkey with leverage in its diplomatic engagements with EU members.
Erdoğan’s political opponents are less than convinced by this argument. Kılıçdaroğlu has claimed that the agreement has made Turkey a “dumping ground for refugees,” and warned of an upcoming “Afghan flood” of 500,000 to one million refugees. As a key electoral promise, the opposition leader has vowed to “send them home.”
These sentiments have gained traction among Turkish citizens, particularly when considering that the country is on the brink of an economic and job crisis. Consequently, refugees are seen as a drain on scarce resources and blamed for taking away employment opportunities, resulting in a surge in attacks on refugees. Therefore, Turkey hopes that by protecting strategic locations like the Kabul airport, which act as critical entry points for diplomatic assistance and humanitarian aid, it will be able to avoid an unmanageable influx of refugees. By allowing for the continued flow of international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of conflict, it could in turn reduce the number of people fleeing the country.
Taking all of this into consideration, it is clear that despite the opportunities to gain diplomatic capital and push for a withdrawal of international sanctions, Turkey must approach the conflict in Afghanistan with caution. Afghanistan has often been a victim of unfulfilled promises by international actors, leaving the country and its citizens in a limbo of a never-ending war. This has also resulted in the loss of thousands of civilian lives, along with several countries’ troops perishing at the hands of Taliban-led violence. Hence, any intervention by Turkey must be wary of the fact that the allure of the potential value of involvement in Afghanistan carries with it monumental risks and political costs.
What are Turkey’s Motivations in Afghanistan?
Turkey’s decision to replace US troops in Afghanistan is guided by its motivation to push for a relaxation of international sanctions and expand its diplomatic footprint.
August 12, 2021
SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS