The Ukrainian Army’s Commander-in-Chief, Valery Zaluzhny, stated in an interview with the Economist that Kyiv’s counteroffensive against Moscow’s invasion has reached a stalemate.
Reports suggest that in the five months after Ukraine launched its counteroffensive, its soldiers have advanced just 17 km through well-reinforced and mined Russian defence lines.
The War, Strategies, and Mistakes
“Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” General Zaluzhny said, adding that “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
He further admitted in the interview that assuming he could stop Russia by hurting its troops was a mistake. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country, such casualties would have stopped the war.”
Ukraine war live updates: Ukraine's top military leader says war is at a stalemate and a 'beautiful breakthrough' is unlikely https://t.co/Kl4I9i7m79
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The Ukrainian General discussed also miscalculations in the time frames evaluated by both the Ukrainian government and NATO. “If you look at NATO’s textbooks and at the math which we did, four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again.”
Zaluzhny further described how there were many tactics used, but none successfully. “First, I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades,” the General said.
Referring to the 1941 book “Breaking Fortified Defence Lines” by a Soviet major-general who evaluated the battles of WWI, he went on to say, “I realised that is exactly where we are because, just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”
“The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other.”
Not Enough Weapons from the West to Win the War
During the interview, Zaluzhny talked about the weapons given by the West, which he said were sufficient to maintain the war but not enough to win it. “They are not obliged to give us anything, and we are grateful for what we have got, but I am simply stating the facts.”
He emphasised the delay in the supply of long-range missile systems and tanks, which impacted the course of the war. “These systems were most relevant to us last year, but they only arrived this year.”
However, the delay in weaponry supply is not the primary reason for Ukraine’s challenges. “It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods,” the General said, adding, “They will inevitably lead to delay and, as a consequence, defeat.”
He also stressed about relentlessly trying to stop the fight from descending into fighting in trenches. “The biggest risk of an attritional trench war is that it can drag on for years and wear down the Ukrainian state.”
“We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”
In the concluding remarks, Zaluzhny underscored the importance of protecting Ukrainian citizens. “Let’s be honest, [Russia is] a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people.”