On Sunday, United States (US) National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned that the window for a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was now open, adding that it could happen “any day” during an interview with Fox News. Sullivan appeared on several such morning news shows over the weekend to address the ongoing security concerns in Europe, raising alarms over Russia’s increasing military aggression towards Ukraine.
While speaking with NBC, Sullivan said that the US was confident that Russia is planning a range of attacks on Ukraine, including cyber-attacks and a full-scale invasion. Sullivan added in an interview with ABC that “there is a very distinct possibility that Vladimir Putin will order an attack on Ukraine,” noting that the attack will come at a catastrophic human cost to Kyiv.
Sullivan’s comments come after Reuters reported on Friday that US officials said 70% of Russia’s military strength is present along its borders with Ukraine citing an increase in Moscow’s battalion tactical groups at the border from 60 to 83. However, the officials did not provide any evidence for their claims.
Sullivan also issued a warning to China, who recently expressed support towards Russia over the situation in Ukraine, saying, “We believe that Beijing will end up owning some of the costs of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” referring to how sanctions imposed on Russia will adversely impact the Chinese economy as well.
On Sunday, Poland’s Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak welcomed the arrival of American troops at the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, 90 kilometres from the Polish border with Ukraine. Blaszczak said the arrival of US troops assured the security of Poland and other North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) members amid Russia’s aggressive policy. Sullivan emphasised that US troops in Poland were there to “defend NATO territory” and not fight Russian soldiers at the Ukrainian border.
On Friday, Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington to discuss security challenges in Europe and address coordinated solutions of the US and its European allies. In a joint statement, Rau and Blinken affirmed the need to militarily bolster NATO’s eastern flank while also voicing the joint support of Washington and Warsaw towards the democratic aspirations of the Belarusian people. US President Joe Biden announced last week that around 2,000 troops will depart from the US to Poland in an effort to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.
Russia’s military activities with ally Belarus continued amid the arrival of US troops in Poland. Over the weekend, Russia sent two long-range nuclear bombers to conduct patrols over Belarus’border, their third such mission during the last month. Last month, Russia and Belarus announced that they will engage in joint military exercises called the “Allied Resolve” drills. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said the aim of the drills was to “confront Western powers” like Poland and Ukraine.
Amidst this military escalation, pressure has mounted on the US and Russia to reach a peaceful consensus over the situation in Ukraine, despite previous attempts ending in a deadlock.