According to statements by American intelligence officials and declassified documents acquired by The Washington Post, the United States (US) is prepared for a Russian invasion of Ukraine in January of next year.
A US administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed, “The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders.” The official added, “The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armour, artillery and equipment.”
The declassified US intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post includes satellite images showing Russian troops amassing at four major locations and “newly arrived” tanks and artillery along the Ukrainian border.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have drastically escalated in the last few months, with both countries mobilising thousands troops at their shared border.
Last week, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov estimated 94,300 Russian troops in Russian-annexed Crimea, raising concerns over a “large-scale escalation” in January. Similarly, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused Kyiv of deploying half of its army to Donbas, Eastern Ukraine, saying “more than 120,000 (Ukrainian) troops have been deployed to the conflict zone.”
Last Thursday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met face-to-face on the margins of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) meeting in Stockholm, Sweden. During the meeting, Blinken voiced concerns over Russia’s increasing aggression at the Ukrainian border, saying, “We’ve seen this playbook before in 2014 when Russia last invaded Ukraine.”
In response, Lavrov warned the US and its Western allies against “playing with fire” with regards to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion towards Russia. “I want to make it crystal clear: Turning our neighbours (Ukraine) into a bridgehead for confrontation with Russia, the deployment of NATO forces in the regions strategically important for our security, is categorically unacceptable,” Lavrov said.
Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Yuri Ushakov confirmed that the Russian leader would demand legally binding documents against NATO expansion.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden told reporters on Friday: “What I am doing is putting together what I believe to be, will be the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried he may do.”
As pressure mounts to de-escalate the current situation in Ukraine, Biden and Putin will hold a virtual conference on Tuesday to address Moscow’s military activity. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the duration of the call is undetermined and that “the presidents will decide themselves.” The two leaders met earlier this year in Geneva to resolve a similar troop build-up situation at the Ukrainian border.