On Tuesday, a senior United States (US) Congressional aide told Reuters that the US had reached an understanding with Germany over shutting down the Nord Stream 2, an underground gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany, if Russia invades Ukraine.
The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has been a point of contention between the US, Ukraine, Germany, and Russia for some time. While the US has expressed concern over Europe’s increased dependence on Russia for energy and natural gas, Ukraine remains concerned about losing valuable transit fees and Russia using energy as a geopolitical weapon.
The White House said that Germany is committed to taking a tougher stance and imposing sanctions on Russia if it uses energy as a geopolitical weapon against Ukraine. During a virtual summit this week, US President Joe Biden also warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin against invading Ukraine and threatened him with “strong economic and other measures” if Moscow initiates a military conflict.
President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the West would impose ‘strong economic and other measures’ on Russia if it invades Ukraine, while Putin demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand farther eastward https://t.co/b8kiidLKsm pic.twitter.com/btnCe0Emh0
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 8, 2021
Similarly, US National Security Adviser (NSA) Jake Sullivan said the West has leverage over Moscow, as the gas is not yet flowing through Nord Stream 2. In fact, just last month, German officials suspended the pipeline certification due to non-compliance with German laws.
Sullivan proclaimed: “If Vladimir Putin wants to see gas flow through that pipeline, he may not want to take the risk of invading Ukraine.” He added, “The subject of the future of Nord Stream 2 in the context of an invasion of Ukraine by Russia in the coming weeks is a topic of utmost priority. It has been discussed thoroughly.”
Along these same lines, a Congressional aide said the US Congress had received substantial assurance from Germany over turning off the pipeline. However, it remains unclear if the two sides have agreed on a standard definition of what an invasion constitutes.
Likewise, an unnamed European diplomat has also acknowledged the knock-on effects of Russia invading Ukraine and additional US sanctions. “If the US imposes (additional) sanctions, it’s an academic point because no one will be able to do business with Nord Stream 2 for fear of running afoul of US sanctions,” the diplomat said.
Ties between Russia and Ukraine significantly deteriorated after the Russian Federation annexed Crimea in 2014. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have drastically escalated in the last few months, with both countries mobilising thousands of troops at their shared border. US intelligence sources have reported that Russia has amassed 175,000 troops at its border with Ukraine, with plans to invade in January. However, the Kremlin has denied these claims, and urged the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to suspend any plans for an eastward expansion.