The September 14 attack on Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco, which cut its daily production in half and sent oil prices soaring, was the latest blow in the ongoing civil war in Yemen. What began as an internal sectarian conflict five years ago is now a full-fledged war, with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States of America (USA) and Iran fully engaged in aggression. This article examines the “world’s worst humanitarian conflict” and the role of foreign actors in its escalation.
Background
Having been colonized by the Ottoman Empire, the British, and wrestling with separatism since at least the 1960s, Yemen has always been a hotbed of conflict. This seemingly permanent state of instability continues to this day due to rebellions, separatist movements, and terrorism. The Houthi Rebellion against the Yemeni government due to the marginalization of the Shi'ite Zaydi minority sect. There are also sectarian conflicts in the South following the 1994 civil war when the South attempted and failed to secede. Thirdly, there is also an increased presence of terrorist organizations such as al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Daesh (ISIS).
The conflict in Yemen, which escalated in 2011 as a part of the larger Arab Spring, was driven by the popular demand for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down. In the transition plan formulated by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the United Nations (UN), Saleh was forced to transfer some of his powers to Vice President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi in November 2011. Hadi ran the 2012 election unopposed and won, receiving full presidential powers under the transitional government.
However, the Houthis were not included in the transitional government and their frustrations over poor living conditions and a lack of political reforms remained unaddressed. Hence, the Houthis were able to muster the support of large factions of the Yemeni armed forces and emerge as major opponents to Hadi’s presidency, accusing him of corruption and being backed by Saudi Arabia and the USA. In a shocking turn of events, following a Saudi-led coalition air raid on Saleh’s home in Sana’a, a 'deal of convenience' was struck in which Saleh and the Houthis joined forces and overran the capital Sana’a in September 2014.
The capture of Sana’a eventually led to Hadi fleeing Yemen and taking refuge in Saudi Arabia, where he reportedly asked the GCC to intervene militarily in Yemen to protect the government against the Houthis. Hence, a military coalition of Saudi Arabia and its allies, backed by the USA, waged a war against the Houthis with airstrikes and ground-fighting since March 2015. Simultaneously, the alliance between Saleh and the Houthis broke down in late 2017 due to his willingness to engage in dialogue with the Saudi-led coalition, leading rebels to kill him.
Role of Saudi Arabia, Iran and the USA
Historically, Saudi Arabia-Yemen relations have been tense due to border disputes, and Riyadh's support for Southern separatists in the 1994 civil war. It is argued that Saudi Arabia prefers a weak but stable Yemen so that the region's balance of power does not shift in favour of its rival, Iran. The war in Yemen is widely considered to be a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran has been accused by Riyadh of arming and training the Houthis, a claim they have denied repeatedly. However, several statements by Iranian officials have made their support for the Houthis and their struggle quite clear.
Some simplify the Yemen conflict as one of religious alliances, but this is only partially true. The Houthis belong to a sect of Islam called Zaydism, which is different from the Shi’ite Twelver sect commonly practiced in Iran. The sectarian narrative also over-simplifies the nature of the Houthi insurgency: not all Houthis are Shi'ites; the Houthi movement includes Sunni Muslims, and some Zaydis have denounced the Houthi movement.
This seesawing situation is further complicated by the overlapping, conflicting, and changing interests of Saudi Arabia and UAE due to a dispute between the two over control of Yemen’s strategic ports and newfound resources of oil and gold near the Omani border. While the Saudis withdrew their support for the Southern separatists after 1994, the UAE now militarily supports the Southern Transitional Council (STC)-a secessionist movement in the South-despite claiming to support the Saudis' position of restoring Hadi to power. It is argued that appeasing southern rebels would help UAE to secure trade routes from the port of Aden and enable exploitation of Yemen’s natural resources.
In addition, since President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of the Obama-brokered nuclear deal with Iran, tensions in the Gulf have heightened. Trump has continued to support the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen with arms sales and intelligence support, despite increasing opposition from US politicians and voters, and international human rights organizations.
What does the future hold?
In December 2018, UN-led peace talks began in Stockholm, Sweden to discuss the demilitarization of the port of Hodeida and an exchange of prisoners. However, the accord faltered, with disagreements between the Yemeni government and the Houthis on several fronts and was unable to address the increasing strikes in both Saudi Arabia and Yemen by the Houthis and the Saudi administration, respectively.
Millions are fear displacement and require humanitarian assistance; however, there are several obstacles to brokering a ceasefire or even securing humanitarian assistance. In a conflict that has morphed from a civil war into a transnational conflict, restoring proper governance and rebuilding state institutions is dependent on the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition with support from ‘big powers’ like the USA. Merely defeating the Houthis will not change the fundamental structures in place in Yemen. Rather, the inclusion of all parties in peace efforts and the introduction of long-lasting political and economic reforms is the need of the hour.
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