On Sunday, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine claimed in a Facebook post that Russia’s political and economic elite are considering removing President Vladimir Putin.
⚡️Ukraine’s military intelligence claim that Russia’s elites scheme to overthrow Putin to restore economic ties with Western countries.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 20, 2022
Aleksandr Bortnikov, head of FSB security agency, is allegedly being considered as Putin’s successor, according to Ukraine's intelligence.
The post stated, “A group of influential figures in opposition to Vladimir Putin is being formed among Russia’s business and political elite” to remove the Russian President and restore economic ties with the West in light of Russia’s crumbling economy due to Western sanctions.
The post also mentioned that several Russian political elites regard the director of Federal Security Service (FSB), Alexander Bortnikov, to be Putin’s successor. “It is noteworthy that Bortnikov has recently fallen out of favor with the Russian dictator. The official reason for the disgrace of the head of the FSB — fatal miscalculations in the war against Ukraine,” it added.
Bortnikov and his department were reportedly tasked with analysing the “mood of the Ukrainian population and the capacity of the Ukrainian army.”
Additionally, the post claimed that Bortnikov and other elites are mulling over options to remove Putin from power, alleging that “poisoning, sudden illness, or other accidents are not excluded.” It added that the recent “downpour” of Chechen units to the north of Kyiv could also be connected with these processes.
“The information came from the Russian side. Probably, this is how the FSB leadership is trying to weaken Kadyrov’s [Ramzan Kadyrov, Head of the Chechen Republic] influence. It may also be an attempt to establish cooperation with the Ukrainian authorities in advance, bypassing the current leadership of the Russian Federation,” the Ukrainian intelligence said.
Reports of discontent are gaining steam amid a war that has now dragged on for weeks. Several Russian political elites and oligarchs are particularly concerned about the impact of sanctions, which have placed severe limitations on their access to funds and ability to travel. The ruble has nosedived to record lows and the critical oil and gas industry has been hit hard with export restrictions. It is also estimated that over 400 foreign companies have completely suspended operations in Russia. Furthermore, independent reports suggest that Russia has lost upwards of 7,000 soldiers in Ukraine and that troop morale is low, with several captured soldiers seemingly unaware of why they are in Ukraine in the first place.
Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defence issued Ukrainian forces an ultimatum to surrender the southern port city of Mariupol by 5 pm on March 21 as a precondition for Russian authorities opening up humanitarian corridors for civilians and unarmed Ukrainian forces.
Mariupol is now a ghost city – 80% of its infrastructure is damaged or destroyed, 40% of which cannot be rebuilt, authorities say. One of the largest in the country, a beautiful, developed city razed to the ground.
— Anastasiia Lapatina (@lapatina_) March 20, 2022
Russian state-owned media outlet RIA Novosti declared on Telegram: “The Russian military appeals to the local authorities of Mariupol: now you have the right to make a historic choice – either you are with your people, or you are with bandits, otherwise the military tribunal that awaits you is only a little that you have already deserved.”
⚡️Russia now accuses “Ukrainian nationalists” of planning terrorist attacks on Ukrainian cities and foreign nationals “to blame Russia.”
— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) March 19, 2022
As always, the Kremlin blames others of doing what it seeks to orchestrate.
Worrisome development.
However, Ukraine has rejected Russia’s ultimatum and refused to lay down its arms and surrender the city. Instead, Ukraine demanded that Russia immediately open humanitarian corridors for civilians seeking to leave Mariupol. Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Reintegration of Temporary Occupied Territories, Irina Vereshchuk, expressed outrage over Russia’s kidnapping of Ukrainians from Mariupol.
“There are 8 pages with a return to history and other nonsense. They sent the same letter to the United Nations (UN), the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and hoped that international structures would react and begin to put pressure on Ukraine. This did not happen. The ICRC and the UN understand that this is Russian manipulation, and that this is taking people hostage,” she said.
⚡️Ukraine rejects Russia's demand to surrender Mariupol.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 20, 2022
Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk responded to Russia by stating that surrender is not an option. The letter from Russia’s Defense Ministry said it would only establish a humanitarian corridor if Mariupol surrenders.
Following Ukraine’s rejection of Russia’s proposal, British Intelligence said that Russia’s troop advancement towards Kyiv had been stalled and that the majority of its forces remain more than 25 kilometres away from the city centre.
Amid this desperation, Russian forces have reportedly begun using hypersonic missiles to speed up operations.
Simultaneously, negotiations between the two sides have entered a “critical phase,” with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying that there is “some hope of reaching a compromise.” Ukraine, however, has said that it will not surrender under any circumstances. Nevertheless, President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously indicated that he has scrapped his ambitions of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and also suggested that he is amenable to a compromise over Donetsk and Luhansk. Zelensky has also called for face-to-face talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, though Putin is reportedly “not ready” for such a meeting.
Against this tense backdrop, European leaders are slated to meet this week to consider imposing even stricter sanctions on Russia, including an oil embargo.