On April 14, United States (US) President Joe Biden formally announced his decision on a way forward in Afghanistan and said that the US would be withdrawing all of its troops from the war-torn nation before the 20th anniversary of 9/11 this year. In an impassioned speech from the Treaty Room at the White House, the president spoke of the rationale behind American interests and involvement in the country since 2001 and stressed that nearly two decades later, it was time to end its longest war and bring its soldiers home.
“We went to Afghanistan in 2001 to root out al Qaeda, to prevent future terrorist attacks against the United States planned from Afghanistan. Our objective was clear. The cause was just. Our NATO Allies and partners rallied beside us. And I supported that military action, along with the overwhelming majority of the members of Congress,” Biden said. The leader emphasised that, over the past two decades America had accomplished the objectives it had set out to achieve, and its continued presence in the country, coupled with “increasingly unclear” goals “could not create or sustain a durable Afghan government.” Biden stressed that the war in Afghanistan “was never meant to be a multi-generational undertaking,” and highlighted that the (terrorist) threat that first took the US to the country had now metastasised across the globe. Against this backdrop, he said it made little sense to keep thousands of soldiers concentrated in just one country.
However, the president declared that the absence of a military footprint was not indicative of the US abandoning Afghanistan, and said that America would remain deeply engaged with the Afghan government and extend not just robust diplomatic support to advance peace negotiations, but also work with other countries to provide economic and humanitarian tools to protect the gains made by Afghan women and girls over the years.
Per the terms of the US-Taliban Doha agreement signed under the Trump administration in February 2020, the deadline for the exit of all allied forces from Afghanistan was May 1, 2021, and the Taliban has repeatedly warned of consequences if the US fails to adhere to its commitments as stipulated in the deal. Though Biden last week said that his current plan for withdrawal was consistent with the February agreement, it became quickly clear that his decision was unilateral, after the Taliban issued another grave warning on the repercussions of extended US troop presence in Afghanistan. “If the [Doha] agreement is breached and foreign forces fail to exit our country on the specified date, problems will certainly be compounded and those who failed to comply with the agreement will be held liable,” Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid tweeted on Wednesday.
If the White House was hoping that making the declaration of withdrawal before the May 1 deadline would be enough to appease the group, Mujahid’s tweet clearly points to the failure of such an approach. The Taliban has already stepped up its violence against the Afghan government in recent months, and if hostilities increase, it could complicate the US’ departure from the country. However, given that the group wants all foreign troops out of Afghanistan as soon as possible, it will be in its interests to not disrupt the US’ withdrawal. The Taliban will therefore have to find a way to make their displeasure of the US’ duplicity and disrespect known without undertaking belligerent (and violent) actions. This could mean the group stepping up its harsh rhetoric against the US and its allies, and it looks like the group is already doing this by announcing its absence from the forthcoming US-sponsored and UN-led peace conference in Turkey.
Soon after the news of the withdrawal broke, Taliban officials announced that the group would not participate in the upcoming peace talks in Ankara. “Until all foreign forces completely withdraw from our homeland, the Islamic Emirate [the Taliban] will not participate in any conference that shall make decisions about Afghanistan,” tweeted Mohammad Naeem, the spokesman for the group’s political office in Doha. Since peace talks are essentially meaningless without the Taliban’s participation, a delay in negotiations could further stall the peace process, which has so far made very little progress. Though Biden has said that the US would continue to support peace talks and urge regional states to do the same, the exact details of Washington’s diplomatic efforts are still unclear, along with any concrete goals the US hopes to achieve in the months ahead.
This ambiguity has also perpetuated anxieties about the future of the Afghan government in the absence of visible and strong US support. Biden’s plan to pull out without preconditions has been met with concerns about its potentially disastrous impact on the administration in Kabul, which will essentially be left to fend for itself against the Taliban, and possibly even al Qaeda, which continues to maintain a limited presence in the country and shares close historical ties with the group.
Reports suggest that the US’ decision was also not discussed with President Ghani, who is now left scrambling to respond. Though the president has since spoken to Biden and said that he would work with US partners “to ensure a smooth transition,” the US’ haphazard way of dealing with the situation could result in increased distrust between the two sides. In fact, Washington’s erratic decision-making and its reluctance to effectively communicate its plans to the Afghan government have become somewhat of a common theme, and illustrate its desperate attempts to salvage peace through last-ditch efforts prior to its exit in September. For instance, last month, Washington abruptly proposed (and strongly urged Ghani to accept) the establishment of an interim government as the only way to bring “a responsible end” to the Afghan conflict. The plan essentially aims to dissolve the current government and establish a new constitution and administration that would include the Taliban. By contrast, the Taliban has been offered no such existential terms.
Apart from the government, the fate of women and girls is now also at stake. Taliban’s rule in the country (from 1996-2001) saw women being whipped and stoned to death for being accused of adultery. They were also forbidden from being educated and working outside of their homes. However, the post-Taliban constitution of 2004 enshrined women’s rights, and successive governments have sworn to protect them. Conditions for women have slowly improved in the nation in over the years, with higher rates of enrolment in schools, increased life expectancy, and lower mortality rates during childbirth. At the same time, there have also been targeted killings of women in high-profile positions by the Taliban, which have raised concerns about the potential erosion of any hard-earned gains made on this issue over the past 20 years.
How this all plays out remains to be seen. Without a clear understanding of the details withdrawal process and the developments that will follow, it is difficult to make judgments on how exactly it will shape the political and security landscape in Afghanistan. What is certain though, is that the path to peace will continue to be tricky and complicated, especially if fighting intensifies and leads to advances by the Taliban.
Even though the US has come to the realistic conclusion that it has achieved all it can in this 20-year-war, its support for the people of Afghanistan who also lost their lives and suffered tremendously in the process must not dwindle. While Biden is right in saying that “only the Afghans have the right and responsibility to lead their country,” it is evident that they’re going to need a lot of help to reach that goal. If things go south, the president will have to be ready to take responsibility for what comes next, to ensure that he does not betray the countless sacrifices so many have made.
The US Is Exiting Afghanistan. What Happens Next?
On April 14, US President Joe Biden formally announced that the US would be withdrawing all of its troops from the war-torn nation before the 20th anniversary of 9/11 this year.
April 21, 2021
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OF AFGHANISTAN