Two weeks after the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region broke out on November 4, the country’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning Prime Minister (PM), Abiy Ahmed, promised to end the war with a “final” offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels. Nine months later, the war still refuses to die down and threatens to engulf the entire country and region in a humanitarian and political crisis.
Sadly, the two main parties to the war—the Ethiopian government and the TPLF—are doing very little to contain the conflict from spreading. PM Abiy has openly expressed his disdain for the rebels by using dehumanising rhetoric to refer to the TPLF. Last month, Abiy made a speech wherein he referred to the Tigray rebels as a “cancer,” the “devil,” and an “invasive weed” that needs to be removed. USAID chief Samantha Power said that the possibility of dialogue “becomes more and more challenging” when such language is used, and “often accompanies ethnically-motivated atrocities.”
On the other hand, the Tigray rebels rejected a government ceasefire in June and immediately launched an offensive to recapture Tigray’s capital, Mekelle. Following this, the rebels paraded over 7,000 captured government soldiers through the streets of Tigray for four days in a show of defiance against the Abiy government
These escalatory measures from both sides have threatened to further destabilise the country and send it tumbling down into an abyss of conflict and violence. The only way to end this vicious cycle of “accusations and counter-accusations” is for both the government and the rebels to start a dialogue on the way forward.
However, given the fact that Abiy’s government and the rebel leadership continue to fire accusations against each other, the possibility of dialogue looks incredibly difficult. Additionally, any compromise by either side would be seen as weakness on their part by conceding to the “enemy.” Therefore, both sides, spurred by a belief that they could win the war, have resorted to actions that have complicated the path towards a negotiated settlement to the conflict.
Following the Ethiopian government’s June ceasefire announcement and the drawdown of its troops from Tigray, there was renewed hope, albeit short-lived, that the devastating conflict in Tigray could be ending. Even the United Nations (UN) said that this “provides an opportunity that all parties to the conflict, including the TPLF, must seize and build upon.” However, the TPLF paid no heed to the UN’s call for calm and set out to retake Mekelle.
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The rebels have also sought to further escalate the war by making military advances into Tigray’s neighbouring provinces of Afar and Amhara. Samantha Power, while visiting Ethiopia earlier this month, urged the TPLF to halt their offensives and withdraw from the two provinces. The United States (US) estimates that roughly 76,000 people in Afar and 150,000 people in Amhara have been displaced as a result of the TPLF’s “military expansion.”
Furthermore, the expansion into these regions has led to a confrontation between the TPLF and local militias. In July, the Afar and Amhara leaders called on “all residents of age” to mobilise for battle against the Tigray rebels, who have blamed Amhara forces of occupying territory belonging to Tigray. The escalation of the conflict beyond Tigray’s borders has led to concerns that the entire Ethiopian nation could be pulled into war.
In fact, according to The Economist, the TPLF’s march into Tigray’s neighbours, particularly Afar, “seems like a bid to control the road and rail link to Djibouti, through which about 95% of landlocked Ethiopia’s trade flows.” It further states that the rebels may even be considering an offensive on Addis Ababa “to remove Abiy by force.”
In this regard, the TPLF has been quite vocal about its intentions. The group’s spokesperson, Getachew Reda, vowed to “liberate every square inch of Tigray” in July and said that “our quarrel is with Abiy” and “not with Afar, Amhara, and other oppressed people.” Moreover, the TPLF struck a military alliance with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) last week in a possible bid to oust the PM. The OLA’s leader even said that the “only solution now is overthrowing this government militarily.”
The Ethiopian government, which declared both the TPLF and OLA as terrorist organisations earlier this year, condemned the alliance. It stated that the TPLF-OLA “marriage” was expected and denounced the groups for massacring their own people. It is not surprising then, that the government summoned “all capable” citizens to join the military to end the TPLF “once and for all.”
The government’s call to arms, which is a reversal of its earlier ceasefire declaration, is reflective of the Abiy government’s decision to take matters into its own hands as it has become increasingly suspicious of foreign mediation in the Tigray conflict. For instance, it has accused the US of “interfering” in Ethiopia’s internal affairs when Washington imposed sanctions on Ethiopian government officials accused of human rights violations in May. The government has also blamed the US and Western human rights organisations for turning a blind eye to the atrocities committed by the TPLF. Abiy once again expressed his displeasure with Washington’s stance when he declined to meet with USAID chief Samantha Power in Addis Ababa earlier this month.
Similarly, Ethiopia rejected Sudan’s offer to mediate an end to hostilities in Tigray and accused the leadership in Khartoum of being untrustworthy. The comments caused a diplomatic spat between the two East African nations, with Sudan recalling its ambassador to Ethiopia in protest.
Ethiopia’s refusal to entertain foreign mediation will likely prolong the conflict and the humanitarian crisis in Tigray, as it will have no incentive to de-escalate tensions and allow the entry of humanitarian aid. In this respect, experts have suggested that the US could impose unilateral sanctions on the TPLF as well as the Ethiopian government in order to force them to defuse the fighting.
However, punitive measures also pose the risk of worsening the situation, as it could lead to accusations of American partisanship, which would further fuel the blame game between the government and the rebels, thereby protracting the conflict. Most importantly, the Ethiopian crisis needs to recognised for what it is—a contest for legitimacy.
Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party claim to be the legitimate actor, as Abiy was sworn in by the parliament in 2018 and was overwhelmingly elected as PM in the 2021 elections. On the other hand, the TPLF, which ruled Ethiopia with a heavy hand for decades, has blamed the Ethiopian government of removing it from power. Hence, the root cause of the conflict can be narrowed down to this power struggle between the rebels and the government. While the TPLF seeks to regain its lost glory, the forces in Addis Ababa are keen on maintaining the status quo.
Without addressing these concerns, it is difficult to see an end to the crisis in Ethiopia. The conflict, which began in November 2020, has killed over a thousand Ethiopians, displaced millions, and seen some of the worst human rights violations, including rape, starvation, mass killings and torture. So long as both sides continue to see themselves as the eventual victors of this protracted conflict, however, there is unlikely to be any sort of compromise or meaningful dialogue.