One of the main promises made by the Taliban after seizing control of Afghanistan in August was to prevent the country from devolving into a haven for terrorists. In fact, the group’s spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, vowed not to allow Afghanistan from being used as a base for launching attacks on the West. The vow was also a key part of the 2020 Doha Agreement between the Taliban and the United States (US) that eventually facilitated the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.
Despite these pledges, however, the Taliban has failed to keep its end of the bargain and Afghanistan’s security situation has only worsened. More than three months after the Taliban’s takeover, the country is still haunted by violence and fear, and the latest threat in this regard has been the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-Khorasan (ISIS-K) in the war-torn country. Khorasan refers to the historical region comprising modern-day Iran, Afghanistan, and other parts of southwest Asia.
Less than two weeks after the Taliban takeover, ISIS-K wreaked havoc outside the Kabul airport when multiple suicide bombings killed more than 100 people, including 90 Afghan civilians and 13 American troops, and wounded almost 200 people. Similarly, in October, more than 100 civilians perished after suicide bombers belonging to ISIS-K targeted two Shia mosques in Kunduz and Kandahar in the span of a fortnight.
The Taliban has responded by deploying thousands of its soldiers to provinces infested by Daesh, the Arabic acronym of ISIS. It has increased search operations and night raids and even captured several ISIS-K militants. Furthermore, Afghanistan’s new rulers have boasted that its soldiers “are superior in every way” to ISIS-K and will easily eliminate them from the country.
However, not everyone seems to concur with the Taliban’s bold claims. A former North Atlantic Treaty Organization official has said that the presence of ISIS-K is the “biggest concern” for Afghanistan’s security, especially during the ongoing period of upheaval and uncertainty. The official notes that Daesh will continue to “conduct horrific terrorist attacks” in Afghanistan and warns that this will attract more foreign fighters and Islamist groups to join ISIS-K. The US, worried by these possibilities, has rushed to impose sanctions on the group and its leaders, hoping that this will contain the terrorists.
Against this gloomy backdrop, it is important to ask what exactly is fuelling ISIS-K’s sudden rise and its ability to carry out sophisticated attacks. While the abrupt and hasty withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan has undoubtedly strengthened ISIS-K’s ability to stage larger attacks, the persistence of the group can also be attributed to some of the Taliban’s policies.
The conflict between the Taliban and ISIS-K can be traced back to their ideological differences. While both groups adhere to an extremist version of Islam, there are differences in their interpretation of Sharia law. According to a study by Stanford University’s Centre for International Security, while the Taliban endorses jihadi ideology, it is more of an ethnic and nationalist entity focused solely on Afghanistan. On the other hand, ISIS-K views Afghanistan as a stepping stone towards building a global Islamic caliphate. Cole Bunzel, an expert in radicalism, says that the Taliban is a “primarily local” actor that does not spend a lot of its energy plotting attacks against the West. ISIS-K, on the other hand, actively seeks the defeat of the West to achieve its aim, he argues.
This clash of ideologies has set the staging ground for a greater rivalry between the two groups. Following the drawdown of US troops, ISIS-K has said that the Taliban is incapable of ruling Afghanistan and even accused it of trying to appease the West in order to gain international recognition. For instance, ISIS-K has blamed the Taliban for toeing the US line and not imposing harsher restrictions on women. Moreover, the Taliban’s promises to respect women’s rights have also created internal tensions and led some disgruntled extremist Taliban members to defect to Daesh.
It should also be noted here that the Taliban is not a single unified entity; rather, it is a patchwork of several factions “with varying degrees of extremism.” Experts have noted that this could potentially lead to a lack of “strategic convergence” within the Taliban and factions like the Haqqani network could see themselves as ideologically closer to the Islamic State, thereby weakening the Taliban.
Simultaneously, former Afghan government officials, including intelligence officers and special force operatives, are joining ISIS-K in droves as a result of the Taliban’s ongoing witch-hunt and their thirst for vengeance. The Wall Street Journal has reported that these “new recruits” of the Islamic State bring “critical expertise in intelligence-gathering and warfare techniques, potentially strengthening the extremist organisation’s ability to contest Taliban supremacy.”
One of the first moves made by the Taliban after capturing power was to release hundreds of thousands of prisoners, including many of its members, from jail. However, according to several intelligence reports, the move was a strategic blunder for the Taliban, as “thousands” of ISIS-K fighters were also among the prisoners who were freed.
All of this has led to an ISIS-K that possesses the resources and capability of staging violent attacks and challenging the Taliban’s evidently vulnerable rule. Experts have noted that this latest round of violence unleashed by Daesh has led to an erosion of public confidence in the Taliban. Nasratullah Haqpal, an Afghan security analyst, claims that the attacks are “bringing down the credibility” of the Taliban. “They [Taliban] have been claiming for years that ‘we are the only group that can secure and bring stability to Afghanistan’. But Daesh and their supporters are challenging this claim.”
The catch-22 situation the Taliban now finds itself in only plays further into Daesh’s hands. Any stance it takes will inevitably lead to a confrontation: either with the international community or the Islamic State. For instance, the Taliban could revert to a more repressive policy on women’s rights to ease tensions with ISIS-K, but such a move would further strain its already fragile ties with the international community. Given that the Taliban craves international legitimacy, it is more likely to take measures to curry greater favour with the West. This will only further infuriate Daesh and lead to the group staging more attacks in Afghanistan and emerging as a major security challenge for the Taliban government. Therefore, with the Taliban caught in a dilemma, Afghanistan is set to be mired in unending cycles of violence and instability.
The Taliban is in a Catch-22 Situation With ISIS-K and the West
While the US’ hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan has undoubtedly empowered ISIS-K, equal attention must be placed on the Taliban’s policies, which have undermined its own rule and fomented instability.
December 1, 2021
ISIS members that surrendered to Afghanistan's security forces, Nov, 2019 IMAGE SOURCE: AFP