In April, the United States (US) and eight other countries signed a renewed deal on the F-35 fighter jet programme, officially excluding Turkey from participating in the project. Washington had announced in 2019 itself that it planned to remove Ankara from the F-35 programme over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s decision to purchase the S-400 missile defence system from Moscow. Moreover, in 2020, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Turkey over the formal acquisition of the missile defence system. US officials claim that the S-400 system poses a threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) alliance as well as the F-35 programme, arguing that Russia could use the sale of defence system to gain access to F-35 technology.
Ties between the US and Turkey did not get any better when President Joe Biden took office in January. It took Biden more than 90 days to call his Turkish counterpart, and when the US President finally decided to call Erdoğan in April, it was to inform him about America’s decision to recognise the Armenian genocide, which Turkey denies happened.
America has also been critical of Turkey’s violation of human rights, especially in its fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The US State Department’s 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices accuses Turkey of targeting civilians in Iraq and Syria largely through airstrikes. Turkey responded by fiercely denying all allegations made in the report, and called it “unfounded.”
In light of the US’ decision to kick Turkey out of the F-35 programme, and the general tensions that prevail between the two sides, Turkey has increasingly sought to pursue a more independent defence policy, which is characterised by a revolution in indigenous drone manufacturing capacity.
“We aim to be one of the first countries to possess UCAVs [drones] controlled completely by artificial intelligence,” Erdoğan told party members during the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) parliamentary meeting last month. Erdoğan’s comments came just two days after Turkey signed a defence deal with Poland for the purchase of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. The agreement made Poland the first NATO and European Union member to buy Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) from Turkey.
In fact, during a meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda in May, Erdoğan boasted that Ankara had become a giant in the global defence industry. “We are one of the 10 countries capable of designing, building and maintaining our own warships. We are represented by seven companies in the list of the world’s top 100 defence companies,” he added.
Turkey’s push towards self-sustainability in the field of defence is most visible in the country’s drone policy. Over the years, Turkey has gone from being dependent on the US for UAVs to emerging as a major drone manufacturer. In 2016, Turkey announced that it will no longer buy drones from the US, as America had imposed restrictions on the sale of UAVs to Turkey over concerns regarding Turkey’s actions in Iraq and Syria against the Kurds. Then-Defence Industry Undersecretary Ismail Demir thanked the US for not selling drones to Turkey, as this “forced us [Turkey] to develop our own systems.” Demir also noted that Ankara’s goal was to become more independent in the field of defence technology. “In terms of defence technologies, once we render, we will develop it. It might take a longer time for us but we will do it,” he added.
Fast forward to today and Demir’s words are definitely not an exaggeration. Turkish companies have been able to manufacture drones with world-class capabilities, including the Anka-S and Bayraktar TB-2 drones. The country is also in the final stages of completing the next-generation Akinci UAV, which can be equipped with cruise missiles and be used for high altitude surveillance.
Moreover, Turkey’s success in manufacturing superior drones is also reflected in the country’s changing defence scene. In 2020, SIPRI reported that “in 2015-19 Turkish arms imports were 48 per cent lower than in the previous five-year period” and in the same year, Erdoğan said that Turkey had reduced its external dependency in defence industry “from around 70% to 30%” over the last five years.
Apart from an increase in the number of drones being manufactured in Turkey, Ankara’s UAVs are being increasingly recognised for their quality. In fact, drone models like the Anka and Bayraktar were used with great success in conflict zones in the Middle East, North Africa, and the South Caucasus. According to US political scientist Francis Fukuyama, Turkey’s rise as a drone power has been so rapid that it “has elevated itself to being a major regional power broker with more ability to shape outcomes than Russia, China, or the United States.”
Drones have helped Turkey project power as well as secure vital interests in the region. For instance, Turkish UAVs helped turn the tide in favour of the Government of National Accord (GNA) forces against the Khalifa Haftar-led Libyan National Army (LNA) during the Libyan civil war in 2019, and in the process, Turkey was able to secure its energy interests in Libya.
In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which was decisively won by the latter, Ilham Aliyev’s government heavily relied on Turkish Bayraktar drones to establish air superiority against Armenian forces. This demonstrated Turkey’s increasing ability to shape outcomes in the region, and in the case of Azerbaijan, through the use of drones.
Drones have also been extremely effective in Turkey’s counter-terrorism strategy against Kurdish militias like the PKK in Iraq and Syria, as well as within its own borders. Hundreds of Kurdish militants, including several top commanders, have been killed as a result of Turkish drone strikes. This has given Turkey the advantage of not using its troops more often and hence resulted in fewer casualties.
As a result of these achievements, there has been an increase in interest in Turkish manufactured UAVs. According to experts, global demand for Turkey’s drones will only increase in the future and could pose a serious challenge to the US monopoly in the drone market. Apart from Turkey, three countries—Azerbaijan, Qatar, and Ukraine—currently use Turkish made drones. While Poland became the latest country to purchase Ankara’s UAVs, countries like Morocco and Saudi Arabia have also expressed interest in buying them.
Turkey’s success story when it comes to drones is also reflective of the changing nature of warfare. The use of drones in warfare was dominated by the likes of the US and Israel up until 2015. However, this is largely changing with the arrival of new drone powers like China and Turkey. The rise of Turkish UAVs as an alternative to US drones is very much symptomatic of this change. This change is perfectly summed up by Francis Fukuyama, who says that just like aircraft carriers made the battleship “obsolete” during World War II, “Turkey’s use of drones is going to change the nature of land power in ways that will undermine existing force structures.”
The Success of Turkey’s Drone Programme is a Product of US Sanctions
Turkey has increasingly sought to pursue a more independent defence policy, through the use of drones, over the US' decision to remove Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet programme.
June 2, 2021
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signs a drone at a military airbase in Batman, Turkey, on Feb. 3, 2018. SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS