A rapprochement between Turkey and Israel would have been inconceivable a year ago. At the time, diplomatic ties were non-existent and Turkey had blamed Israel for starting the 11-day war with Hamas in Gaza in May. Furthermore, tensions had still not subsided following the United States’ recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2018, a move that led to Turkey downgrading ties with Israel and recalling its ambassador to Tel Aviv. However, ties have improved rapidly since then. Following several high-profile visits from both sides over the past year, their leaders announced the re-establishment of full diplomatic relations two weeks ago.
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agreed that normalisation would lead to “many achievements,” especially in the fields of commerce and tourism.
The deal allows Israeli passenger flights to land in Turkey and also allows the government set up trade and economic offices in Turkey, a move that could benefit thousands of Israeli businesses. The agreement could also boost Turkey’s tourism sector, given that Turkey is already Israelis’ most popular travel destination. Moreover, reports indicate that Turkey is keen on enlisting Israeli help to influence Washington to sell Ankara advanced fighter jets.
While these factors have undoubtedly contributed to Israel and Turkey’s renewed bonhomie, the two countries have for years talked about improving economic ties with very little progress. In this regard, the biggest factor in Israel and Turkey accelerating the normalisation process appears to be their mutual concern over Iran’s growing military clout in the Middle East. Middle East experts Ali Bakir and Ömer Özkizilcik note that “Iranian involvement in the region has created a convergence of interest between Turkey and Israel,” arguing that Iran’s threats to attack Israeli tourists in Turkey in June had a catalytic effect on normalisation talks.
Israel’s National Security Council in June issued a travel warning to its citizens, asking them not to travel to Turkey, citing Iranian plots to either kidnap or kill Israelis after Tehran vowed revenge for Israel’s assassination of several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders in Iran. Days after Israel issued the advisory, Israeli intelligence agents evacuated several Israeli citizens from their hotels in Istanbul hours ahead of an Iranian kidnapping attempt. Turkish intelligence also busted an Iranian intelligence ring in Istanbul plotting an attack on Israelis. It was reported that Israeli and Turkish intelligence collaborated to thwart Iranian threats. According to Bakir and Özkizilcik, this “constituted the biggest case of cooperation between the two sides since the reset efforts.”
Israel has also been extremely worried about Iran’s growing presence in Palestinian territory. While Iran has already strategically encircled Israel in Syria and Lebanon through proxy militias, it does not have a foothold in Palestine. However, the brief conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Gaza this month was a demonstration of Iran’s ability to influence the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Unlike Gaza’s leading militant group Hamas, the PIJ is an entirely Iranian-backed organisation. While Hamas does have ties with Iran, it is closer to Turkey, which has hosted Hamas leaders in the past and expressed support for the group. According to reports, Hamas did not give the PIJ its blessings to launch an attack against Israel, signalling a conflict between the two groups for control of Gaza. In this respect, Israel could seek Turkey’s help to ask Hamas to prevent further attacks by the PIJ.
While Iran has been fighting a covert war with Israel for decades, Tehran has over the last few years opposed Ankara’s military presence in Iraq and Syria. Turkish troops are stationed in northern Syria and Iraq to fight Kurdish groups like the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Occasionally, Turkish troops have launched airstrikes against Syrian regime allies and Iranian proxies, actions that have angered Tehran. Iran has not only called on Turkey to withdraw troops from Iraq and Syria but also collaborated with the PKK to launch attacks on Turkish troops in Iraq. In addition, Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq have launched missiles and shelled Turkish bases in Iraqi Kurdistan. As a result, Turkey sees Iran as actively trying to use Iraq as a launchpad to attack its troops.
Ankara and Tehran also back opposing sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Iran supported Armenia with weapons during the 2020 war with Azerbaijan and amassed its troops near the Armenian border in a show of solidarity with Yerevan during a recent flare-up. Iran’s support for Armenia has been condemned by both Turkey and Azerbaijan. Iran also has longstanding tensions with Azerbaijan over Azerbaijani troops preventing Iranian trucks from crossing the region and Azerbaijan’s close security ties with Israel.
Finally, Israel and Turkey’s rapprochement comes as both sides look to improve ties with Arab countries, which are increasingly worried about a nuclear-capable Iran. Israel has not only completely normalised ties with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco but also improved relations with Jordan and Egypt. Likewise, Turkey has also been keen on improving relations with the Arab world after clashing with Gulf countries during the Libyan and Syrian civil wars, and over its support for Qatar during the 2017 Gulf crisis. In an effort to quell tensions, Erdoğan met with the leaders of the UAE and Riyadh in February and April, respectively.
Therefore, Turkey and Israel’s normalisation is more of a marriage of convenience against Iranian threats. Joining forces could help both countries deal effectively with Iran’s growing presence in the Middle East. However, Iran, too, appears to be forming new alliances or normalising ties with former foes. Recently, countries like the UAE and Kuwait have reappointed their ambassadors to Iran, stressing that they prefer diplomatic means to resolve differences. Saudi Arabia and Iran have also held five rounds of talks mediated by Iraq and plan to hold additional discussions in the coming months. It now remains to be seen whether this expanded diplomacy from all sides will lead to the formation of new divisions as Israel, Turkey, and Iran all seek to gain an upper hand in the region. Moreover, it has also raised concern that diplomacy could in fact heighten the possibility of conflict and escalation, as different sides try to claw back the advantages that new alliances may bring.
The Iran Threat Has Forged an Unlikely Friendship Between Turkey and Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have said normalisation will lead to “many achievements,” especially in the fields of commerce and tourism.
August 29, 2022
Israeli President Isaac Herzog (L) and Turkish Preisdent Recep Tayyip Erdogan. IMAGE SOURCE: GPO