The meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Naftali Bennett in Sharm El Sheikh on September 13 signalled the start of a positive chapter in Egypt and Israel’s historically adversarial ties. Bennett was the first Israeli PM to visit Egypt in over a decade and even proclaimed that peace between Israel and Egypt is the “basis” of stability in a largely unstable Middle East and, as a result, more countries are “opening up” to Israel.
Talks between the two leaders ranged from economic ties to bilateral relations as well as security and diplomatic cooperation. While preserving the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and reviving the Palestinian peace process dominated the talks, reports later emerged confirming that Turkey’s role in the region was also part of the discussions. In fact, one of the reasons why Egypt has been keen to take ties with Israel a step further is its sour relations with Turkey, particularly since El-Sisi took over the reins in Egypt.
Since the Egyptian military, led by El-Sisi, toppled Mohammed Morsi, the country’s first democratically elected president, in 2013, Turkey has been relentless in its criticism of the Egyptian establishment. Following Morsi’s ouster, then Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched a verbal assault on the Egyptian military, calling them “enemies of democracy” and “brutal murderers.” Erdoğan also compared El-Sisi to Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad and called him an “illegitimate tyrant,” provoking a strong backlash from Egypt. Furthermore, Turkey recalled its ambassador to Egypt following the military takeover and accused Israel of engineering the coup.
Further straining ties, a furious Cairo has responded in kind to Ankara’s harsh criticisms of Egypt and its leader, cancelling military drills and high-level meetings with Turkey. It was also part of a successful campaign against Turkey’s 2016 bid to become a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. In addition, in 2019, El-Sisi used the term “genocide” to refer to Turkey’s massacre of more than a million Armenians between 1915 and 1917, a move that Turkey fiercely opposes.
Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that both countries have fought a proxy war in Libya and taken diplomatic postures against the other side’s interests, notably in the Nile dam and the eastern Mediterranean disputes. Taking this into account, Egypt views Israel as an indispensable partner in countering Turkish moves.
For instance, the recent discoveries of huge natural gas fields in the Mediterranean by Egypt and Israel have prompted Turkey to seek a greater area for energy exploration. However, Turkey’s claims overlap into the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of Greece and Cyprus, and the resulting rivalry, has led to indirect clashes between Ankara and Cairo over control of the Sea.
Turkey and Egypt supported rival groups in the Libyan civil war to secure their respective energy interests. The Turkish-backed Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) was successful in pushing back the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by warlord Khalifa Haftar, who was supported by Egypt. The GNA’s victory allowed Turkey to sign a gas deal with the Libyan government in 2019 to establish an EEZ from Libya to Turkey. The deal angered Greece, which retaliated by signing an agreement with Egypt for the establishment of an energy corridor overlapping the Egypt-Libya EEZ.
Therefore, to protect its interests and ramp up the pressure on Turkey to make concessions, Egypt has partnered with Israel in a regional energy forum— the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF)—along with Greece, Jordan, France, and Italy. The EMGF was established in 2020 as a counter to Turkish claims in the eastern Mediterranean.
Moreover, Egypt believes Israel can influence Ethiopia to come to an understanding to resolve the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute, especially since Ethiopia has sought Turkish support over the dispute. Experts have suggested that Egypt should seek Israel’s support in bringing an end to the conflict that has been brewing for years. Egypt remains opposed to Ethiopia’s construction of a dam in the Blue Nile, which it says will decrease its supply of Nile water and lead to significant evaporation and water loss.
While Egypt’s ties with Ethiopia are already rocky, the entry of Turkey could further complicate matters. Cairo has been particularly wary about Ankara’s motives in pursuing better ties with Addis Ababa. Last month, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed met with Turkish President Erdoğan in Ankara to increase economic cooperation and seek Turkey’s support in the ongoing Tigray conflict. Additionally, Erdoğan offered to mediate the territorial dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan. In light of the blossoming Ethiopian-Turkish friendship, it becomes all the more important that Egypt bolster ties with Israel, as Israel maintains strong bilateral and military ties with Ethiopia and Egypt sees Israel as having the standing and clout to influence Ethiopia to return to the negotiating table and resume dialogue to resolve the Nile Dam tensions.
Finally, Egypt and Israel are natural partners when it comes to combating the influence of Islamist groups in the region. Since El-Sisi came to power in 2013, the Egyptian government has been carrying out a purge against Muslim Brotherhood members and organisations. Similarly, Israel has been engaged in a deadly conflict with Hamas, an offshoot of the Brotherhood, in Gaza for years. Moreover, the fact that Turkey supports the Brotherhood and Hamas, and hosts several of their leaders should be reason enough for both Egypt and Israel to deepen their relations.
However, even if both countries are willing to upgrade ties, they would still have to face several roadblocks before full-fledged relations are established. The biggest challenge facing Egypt in its pursuit of a strong alliance with Israel is public opinion. According to the 2019-2020 Arab Opinion Index, 85% of Egyptians oppose the diplomatic recognition of Israel. In this respect, Cairo would be careful not to rock the boat and provoke a reaction from the public over its growing ties with Israel.
Historically, Egypt has always stood by the Palestinians and has fought three major wars with Israel—in 1948, 1967, and 1973—to “liberate” Palestine from the “Zionists.” While Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty in 1979, what followed was decades of a “cold peace,” wherein Egypt would regularly condemn Israeli actions against Palestine. Since the issue of Palestine remains a sensitive topic in Egypt, any deviation from its stance could lead to a potential uprising in Egypt. The El-Sisi government would, more than anything, want to maintain calm and ensure its longevity.
That being said, Egypt should recognise the strategic benefits in maintaining strong ties with Israel, especially with regards to countering Turkey’s moves in its neighbourhood. Therefore, despite a lack of fanfare, Egypt is likely to continue to carefully build on its friendship with Israel and boost its standing in the region.
Tensions With Turkey Have Pushed Egypt to Form a Seemingly Unlikely Friendship With Israel
Despite a lack of public support, Egypt would likely pursue improved relations with Israel given the strategic benefits, especially with regards to countering Turkey's moves in the region.
September 22, 2021
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett (L) and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi SOURCE: KOBI GIDEON/GPO