The Taliban’s Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Abdul Ghani Baradar, on Tuesday projected that Afghanistan’s exports would double from last year to $2 billion by December.
Along the same lines, Minister of Industry and Commerce’s Head of Information and Public Relations Jawad Dabeer reported on Sunday that Afghan exports had generated $1 billion in revenue in the first seven months of 2022. Of this, Pakistan accounted for $743 million, India $207 million, and Tajikistan $23 million.
#صادرات ما در طی هفت ماه گذشته به سه کشور منطقه، نزدیک به #یکمیلیارد دالر آمریکایی میرسد. pic.twitter.com/AwpMWUsVHf
— جواد دبیر (@AfgCommercenews) November 5, 2022
Fresh and dried fruits, vegetables, medicinal plants, and minerals account for 97% of exports to regional partners, including Iran, Pakistan, and China. Mineral extraction and export to Pakistan have also surged by 16% since the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021.
The United States Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) corroborated the upward trend of Afghan export revenue in a report on 4 November.
It confirmed that the Taliban had collected about $1.2 billion in revenue from December 2021 to August 2022, marginally higher than the period between 2020 and the Taliban’s takeover.
The Taliban collected 57% of the revenue as taxes on exports at the border, while inland sources accounted for the remaining 43%.
The SIGAR report noted that Afghanistan recorded a $79 million trade surplus with Pakistan from July 2021 to June 2022. According to Pakistan Today, trade in pharmaceutical products increased by 204% from July-October 2022 compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, trade in aluminium and its products increased by 89% and fruits and vegetables by 22%.
The SIGAR also revealed that from June to July, the Taliban tripled coal prices from $90 to $280 to increase revenue from “booming coal exports to its neighbour Pakistan.” The de facto government also increased customs duties by 10%. Despite the price hit, Afghan coal is $40 cheaper than the market price.
Ten top export items of Afghanistan in 7 months of the year:
— ظاهرجان احسن ZahirJan (@Zahirjan287) November 9, 2022
1-Coal: $330 million
2-Asafotida: 73m
3- Cotton: 55m
4-Grapes: 41m
5-Pomegranate: 40m
6-Tomato: 38m
7-Raisins: 37m
8-Dried figs: 37m
9-Black pine nuts: 27m
10-Dried apricot: 25m
The surge in coal prices came just weeks after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced his decision to expand Afghan coal imports using local currency instead of dollars to preserve its foreign reserves. Sharif said the decision could save around $2.2 billion worth of foreign reserves each year.
SIGAR reported that Afghanistan exports 10,000 tonnes of coal to Pakistan on a daily basis, via three different border crossings. Coal has emerged as an essential export product for the Taliban, particularly amid rising energy costs caused by the Ukraine conflict.
To this end, the Taliban’s Minister of Commerce and Industries, Nuruddin Azizi, announced on Monday that the regime is nearing a deal to export coal to Iran and “a contract will be signed in this regard soon.”
JUST IN: #BNNAfghanistan Reports.
— Gurbaksh Singh Chahal (@gchahal) November 5, 2022
The Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MoIC) said that Afghanistan is looking to sign a contract with Iran to boost its coal exports to the country in the near future. #Afghanistan #Business pic.twitter.com/25ARhlYTGH
Nevertheless, the SIGAR report said that the Afghan economy has contracted by an estimated 20% since August 2021, leaving over 700,000 people unemployed, 25 million impoverished, and millions poorer and more vulnerable to hunger and disease.
The US oversight authority attributed this to continued international sanctions, loss of confidence in domestic banks, and higher import costs. It added that sky-rocketing food and energy prices and the ongoing drought have worsened inflation, which has risen to 31.5%. There has also been a 55% increase in diesel prices and a 42% increase in wheat prices since last year.
That being said, Afghanistan has $3 trillion worth of untapped iron ore, copper, lithium, oil and gas, and gem deposits, which provides a ray of hope amid a by and large deteriorating economic situation.