On Monday, The Canadian Parliament’s National Security and Intelligence Committee submitted its Annual Report from 2020. The report was in fact delivered to Prime Minister Justine Trudeau on December 18, 2020 but has now been published online on the website of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP) in a redacted format after it was tabled in Parliament in March.
The committee formed its report through collaborative efforts with: Canada Border Services Agency; Canadian Security Intelligence Service; Communications Security Establishment; Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces; Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre; Global Affairs Canada; Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre; Public Safety Canada; Privy Council Office; Public Safety Canada; and Royal Canadian Mounted Police.
The document outlines the five major threats to Canadian security: terrorism, espionage and foreign interference, malicious cyber activities, major organised crime, weapons of mass destruction. Here are the major takeaways from each of the five categories:
Terrorism
As far back as 2018, the Canadian government was already becoming increasingly wary of the threat posed by Salafi-jihadi ideology that is espoused by groups like Daesh (more commonly known as the Islamic State) or Al-Qaeda. It has kept its National Terrorism Threat Level at “medium”, but remains cautious.
Nevertheless, the report notes that the ‘nature of the global terrorism threat is changing” and that the liberation of Daesh strongholds in Iraq and Syria has led to the subsequent security challenge of deradicalising and repatriating “Canadian extremist travellers”. Furthermore, Canadian troops are still active in regions where these groups still pose a huge threat, such as in West Africa (e.g. Mali and Burkina Faso)
At one point, Daesh controlled roughly 33% of Syria and 40% of Iraq. While this number has subsided over the past few years due to continued counterterrorism efforts, the report concedes that these groups remain operational in those countries and indeed across the globe. Furthermore, their actions have “inspired” other groups whom they have now formed alliances with. Daesh continues to remain one of the primary threats to Canadian forces stationed in Iraq, and also has branches in Afghanistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Daesh also has affiliated groups in West Africa and the Greater Sahara, while Al-Qaeda has affiliated groups across the highly volatile Sahel region.
At home, too, since 2018, Canada has recorded two fatal attacks that were registered as terrorist acts. Aside from Islamist ideologies, the Canadian security and intelligence establishment is also increasingly concerned about the emergence of the “involuntarily celibate”, or “incel”, ideology, which has already resulted in multiple deaths, including one mass killing of 1 people by one attacker in 2018. The report also notes an increase in ‘xenophobic violence’, ‘anti-authority violence’, and “other grievance-driven and ideologically motivated violence”. This has placed visible minorities, religious groups, and immigrants at risk but also people and groups who are commonly seen as “elites” and “capitalists”, including corporate executives and government officials.
These attitudes are often developed in online chat forums and social media groups, particularly through right-wing extremist “channels, pages, groups, and accounts”. Moreover, much of these ideologically driven criminals and individuals don’t belong to any one specific group, unlike in the past with Daesh and Al-Qaeda. At the same time, many of these ideologies, such as violent misogyny and white supremacy, often overlap, making them more difficult to target through traditional strategies. Moreover, the pandemic and strict lockdown measures have meant that impressionable individuals now have more time to access these “extremist echo chambers”, which has made it more difficult to report such individuals to authorities due to more limited personal contact, but also heightened the risk of their radicalisation.
Keeping this in mind, the report concludes: “The primary physical threat to Canada remains low-sophistication attacks on unsecured public spaces.”
Espionage and Foreign Interference
Since 2018, the Intelligence Committee has increased its monitoring of foreign interference, which it sees as a growing threat to the country’s “sovereignty, prosperity, and national interests”. The document says that these threats typically target “communities, government, businesses, universities, and technology”. To this end, it states that the perpetrators of these acts are usually state actors. These actors frequently use “direct and indirect contact to influence democratic and electoral institutions and processes by manipulating ethnocultural communities, persons in positions of authority or influence, and the media.” At the same time, data also reveals that the country’s science and technology sectors are increasingly coming under attack.
These attacks, the report says, are primarily orchestrated by Russia and China. For example, it claims that China “uses its ‘talent programs’ and academic exchanges to exploit Canadian expertise.” The text further adds that economic espionage has resulted in “lost jobs, lost tax revenues, and diminished competitive advantage.”
The committee posits that these threats have been particularly acute during the ongoing pandemic, during which research networks in the United States (US), Canada, and the United Kingdom (UK) have been targeted by Russia, China, and Iran, who have attempted to “steal proprietary data” in order to “gain economic and technological advantage”.
Malicious Cyber Activities
Like with espionage and foreign interference, the Intelligence Committee holds China and Russia primarily responsible for malicious cyber-attacks against Canada as well, saying that they have targeted “government systems, critical infrastructure providers, the private sector, and Canadians.” These attacks have escalated during the ongoing pandemic, when state and non-state actors have targeted the country’s health sector and government services, and also led “online disinformation campaigns aimed at manipulating public opinion and undermining confidence in the functioning of key public health systems.”
Aside from Russia and China, Canada has also noted state-sponsored cyber-attacks emanating from Iran and North Korea.
Major Organised Crime
The Committee also wrote about the continued threat of the “illegal trafficking of drugs, weapons, illicit goods and people, and financial crimes, such as fraud, illegal gaming and market manipulation.” In fact, Canada has been monitoring the activities of such groups for decades, but the report notes that these activities have “grown in complexity and sophistication” over the past two decades due to increases in “cyber-crime, identity-related crime, trafficking in cultural property, and organ trafficking.” Many of these groups have ties with overseas partners, such as Mexican and Colombian drug cartels. Their illicit financial gains are often laundered through “casinos, the underground banking system, illegal gaming (including illegal gaming houses and illegal gaming websites), shell companies and nominees, trade-based money laundering, and real estate investments.” This, the Committee argues, “erodes the integrity of Canada’s financial systems, distorts marketplaces, creates instability, and enables corruption in industry and government.”
Weapons of Mass Destruction
The Committee first acknowledged the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)—chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear—and the “proliferation of dual-use materials” back in 2018, and said they wield the potential to “cause indiscriminate and mass casualties, and significant and long-term environmental and economic damage.” While the Committee has not raised the threat level of WMDs, it noted that its assessment may change due to: the “weakening” of the global nuclear disarmament regime; the “continued use of chemical weapons by state and on-state actors” in violation of international laws and norms; and “technological advancements” that have “increased the accessibility of dual-use materials and facilitated the development and delivery of chemical and biological weapons.”
The report notes that disarmament and non-proliferation regimes have been “relatively effective”, seeing as only four countries have obtained nuclear weapons since the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) came into force in 1970. Furthermore, states’ nuclear warhead inventories have shrunk, and 96% of “declared chemical weapons stockpiles have been eliminated”. However, it warns that “developments over the past several years suggest these trends may be reversing.” Thus, the Privy Council Office argues that “the degradation of global arms control frameworks, the development of new weapons systems by several nuclear-armed states, and the continued targeting of Canada by state and non-state actors for dual-use technologies for new weapons development are cause for concern.”
Promisingly, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States (US) and Russia was extended in February. However, efforts to denuclearise North Korea are “stalled”, and moves to “limit Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon” have been undermined by the US’ withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and pushed Iran to “resume some previously restricted elements of its nuclear program.” Furthermore, although the overall number of nuclear warheads has decreased, nuclear weapon states are still modernising their weapons. While the threat is limited, the Committee notes that in the eventuality of a Russian or Chinese nuclear conflict with the US, Canada could be attacked.
The report further notes the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime in Syria, and by North Korea and Russia.
The full report can be accessed here.