Earlier this week, a Reuters report speculated that Chinese President Xi Jinping might not attend the G20 Summit in New Delhi on 9-10 September, sending ripples across the international political scene.
The rumours were confirmed early Monday when China announced that Premier Li Qiang would participate in the Summit instead.
As commentators across opine on the ramifications of Xi’s decision to skip the Summit, a first since he took office in 2012, we look at the different possible reasons that might have led to the Chinese president’s calculated absence from the meeting.
Moving Away from Western-Dominated Groupings
Xi has decided to skip the G20 Summit just days after participating in the BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, in the last week of August, which saw an expansion of the grouping.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will not be visiting New Delhi to attend the #G20Summit, instead Premier Li Qiang is coming for the global event.https://t.co/hrM23dQPhR
— Mint (@livemint) August 31, 2023
Like in the case of BRICS, many believe that Xi’s absence from the G20 summit is part of Beijing’s new approach to global governance, which hinges on the idea of pivoting away from Western-dominated institutions, most of which emerged post-World War II.
Xi’s call for China to “lead the reform of the global governance system with the concepts of fairness and justice” should be noted in this regard.
As a part of this, China is attempting to acquire a greater say in traditional global institutions and is building new Beijing-dominated mechanisms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the BRICS National Development Bank (NDB).
China has repeatedly asserted its opposition to the global dominance of the West in political mechanisms across the globe, which would also include the G20.
As Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University, put it, “Xi’s skipping the West-heavy club of G20 right after attending the BRICS Summit may be a visual illustration of Xi’s narrative of ‘East is Rising, and the West is falling.’”
Xi-Biden Meet
The G20 Summit was being seen as a possible meeting point for US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart.
The meeting was highly anticipated, especially in light of a flurry of high-level visits to China, including those of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Xi’s decision to stay away from the summit reflects that the US-China ties are still rife with friction.
The two countries have been in conflict over the issue of semiconductors, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, and increasingly differ on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and North Korea.
The US recently signed the Camp David agreement with Japan and South Korea, and even though Biden remarked the move should not be seen as anti-China, Beijing called the move a “deliberate attempt to sow discord.”
Notably, Biden has expressed disappointment over reports of Xi’s absence from G20.
However, with the latest development that would defer the meeting of the two presidents, it is felt that Xi, who seemed to seek dialogue with the West until last year, has changed his policy of engagement with the West.
Rivalry with India
India and China have seen a souring of ties since the violent 2020 Galwan Clash, with the border dispute being a festering sore between the two neighbours.
Just after Indian PM Narendra Modi met Xi at the BRICS summit, China published a new “standard map,” claiming territories of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh.
"Xi Jinping to skip G20 summit" - Let's Call It What It Really Is!
— Happymon Jacob (@HappymonJacob) September 4, 2023
- That is a $18 trillion economy snubbing the $3.75 trillion economy.
- That is a rising superpower trying to show India "its place"!
- Bothering not to give any reason for Xi's absence is rubbing it in.
- The…
India’s increasing closeness to China’s arch-rival, the US, and its participation in groupings like the Quad (US, Australia, India, and Japan), which Beijing perceives as anti-China, also add to the bitterness of ties.
China did not participate in the G20 meetings held by India in Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh, calling the regions “disputed territory.” The two countries have also evicted each other’s journalists from their respective countries.
It also opposed the inclusion of India’s G20 motto, “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (The whole world is one family) in the G20 documents, saying it was in Sanskrit, which is not listed as an official UN language.
Farwa Aamer, the Director of South Asia Initiatives at ASPI, remarked, “China doesn’t want India to be the voice of the Global South or to be that country within the Himalayan region to be hosting this very successful G-20 summit.”
Xi’s absence from a summit hosted by India suggests that ties between the two nations are far from okay.
According to Bloomberg, a diplomat in Beijing who previously served in New Delhi suspected that “Xi had little interest in participating in an event aimed at bolstering the global profile of a rival with whom China has territorial disputes.”
Domestic Concerns
An increasing number of reports suggest that China’s economy is slowing down.
Even though Beijing has said it would prove wrong Western reports signalling its economic slowdown, the reports have raised alarms and highlighted the country’s overall outlook as grim.
With the rising centralisation of power in the hands of the Chinese president and a slow pace of delegation, the country is heavily reliant on Xi’s command of power.
It is believed that his engagement with domestic issues might have gained priority over global clout.
According to Alfred Wu, Associate Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, “Xi Jinping is setting his own agenda, where his top concern is national security, and he has to stay in China and make foreign leaders visit him instead.”
In such a situation, Xi’s decision to stay back in his country seems valid as internal cohesion and stability take precedence over handling external ties.
Conclusion
Whatever the reasons of Xi’s absence from the G20 Summit might be, it cannot be pinned to one exclusive reason.
Apart from the aforementioned reasons, showing support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and avoiding confrontations with Japanese PM Fumio Kishida are some other plausible explanations.
However, the importance of the Chinese president’s absence should not be underplayed or overplayed as India hosts dignitaries from across the world. The event should be seen as something bigger than petty political rivalries.