In recent weeks, Ukraine has increased the frequency of its drone attacks against Russia as part of its counter-offensive strategy, reports suggest.
Overview
Early Friday, two Ukrainian drones targeted the Russian town of Kurchatov in the Kursk area, causing damage to administrative and residential buildings, and a third one was shot down near Moscow.
Russia also reported this week that six Russian regions, including Moscow, were attacked, and transport planes were damaged when drones targeted an airport in Pskov, near the Estonian border.
Last week, Ukrainian drones near Moscow caused the Kremlin to shut down airports in the capital briefly. The Russian Ministry of Defence said that Ukraine launched 42 drones at the seized Crimean Peninsula and fired a missile that was intercepted not far from Moscow.
Reports suggest that the attack on the seized Crimean Peninsula was the largest drone attack on Russia since it began its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.
Nearly four months ago, on the night of 3 May, two drones containing explosives flew unimpeded over Moscow, crashing into the Senate Dome of the Kremlin. This attack, most likely carried out by Ukraine, was the first-ever drone strike on the Russian capital, which reportedly was a significant blow to Russia.
Russia has been hit by 25 drone attacks last month alone, according to the UK Defence Ministry’s intelligence assessment on 31 August.
Reasons for Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia
As per reports, throughout the summer, the intensifying Ukrainian strikes have mainly targeted buildings in central Moscow, an international airport, and a supersonic bomber stationed south of St. Petersburg, in addition to attacks on Russian oil storage depots and military infrastructure in occupied Crimea and near the Russia-Ukraine border.
Targeting Russian Air Bases, Ships, Industrial Buildings
According to sources, both Russia and Ukraine use drones extensively, but their strategies differ. Ukraine’s strategy is significantly more limited, and has only targeted military and government buildings, with no civilian casualties reported.
Oil refineries, airports, and energy infrastructure have all been attacked in 2023. At least nine drone strikes on oil tanks have been recorded. One of these attacks was at Sevastopol, a large Crimean city, targeted in April, damaging multiple oil tanks.
Layla Guest, an analyst at Sibylline security firm, said, “Ukrainian forces will highly likely prioritise targeting oil refineries, as well as railway infrastructure and wider Russian logistics, to cause maximum disruption.”
Israeli military expert Yigal Levin told DW, “These attacks on Moscow are not aimed at killing millions of people.” “That is neither necessary nor useful. Instead, the goal is to block Moscow’s airspace and logistics channels, to paralyse airports and the transport system,” Levin explained.
Ukraine’s Strategy Shift from Defensive to Offensive
Initially, Ukraine was applying a strategy of defending, and drones were used to attack invading Russian troops. According to reports, Ukraine has maintained a strong defence of its cities by using Turkish-made drones to carry out destructive strikes on invaders.
The Turkish drone Bayraktar TB2, which carries lightweight, laser-guided bombs, usually excels in low-tech conflicts. According to Jack Watling of the London-based Royal United Services Institute, the drones carried out successful attacks in the early phases of Ukraine’s battle with Moscow before the Russians were able to build up their air defences on the battlefield.
Drone Strategy Part of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
In June, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive against Russian soldiers occupying its south and east. Two months into its counteroffensive, reports suggest Ukraine has been increasingly using drones to strike targets within Russia’s borders.
Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military specialist and the director of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, stated to CNBC that drone attacks would become increasingly frequent.
“I think that the scale of these attacks will be higher… and that these drones can be the game changer in the Russia-Ukraine war,” he added.
Types of Drones Used
The drones launched by Kyiv against Moscow in August — and possibly against previous targets within Russia — were designed and built in Ukraine. According to the New York Times (NYT), Ukraine has developed at least three types of drones capable of striking deep inside Russia.
The three drones identified by NYT — the Bober, a kamikaze attack drone, the UJ-22 Airborne, and a third type with an unknown name — have all been used to strike locations in Russia, including Moscow.
According to reports, several videos from the 30 May and 24 July attacks show at least one Bober, named for the Ukrainian term for beaver, flying in and around Moscow.
Motivated by Retribution
According to reports, some Ukrainian strikes, such as the one that flew into a civilian area of Moscow, may have been motivated by retribution, but the majority are directed against the Russian military or a key source of revenue: oil.
Gaps in Russian Air Defences
Moscow’s air defences contain gaps, even though the city was intended to become Russia’s best-protected territory since the Soviet era, as stated by Mykhailo Samus, a Ukrainian military specialist living in Prague.
Samus said Russian air defences are geared at “traditional targets,” such as ballistic missiles, rather than small flying objects such as Ukraine’s UJ-22 and Bober, or “Beaver,” drones.
“Such small objects are predominantly made from composite materials rather than metal, follow complex flight patterns, and therefore, present a challenge for any air defence system,” he explained.
According to experts, the Ukrainians launch individual drones to locate radar stations, and after such gaps are identified, more drones are launched “deep into Russian territory, where there are fewer air defence systems than in border areas.”
Israeli military analyst Sergey Migdal stated that when a drone reaches Moscow, Russian authorities can only use last-ditch defences like the Pantsir short-range anti-aircraft missile system. However, he claims that air defence systems only have 15 to 30 seconds to intercept incoming drones before they reach their objectives.
Zelensky Says ‘War Returning to Russia’
In July, after three Ukrainian drones were shot down above Moscow, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the war was gradually returning to Russia.
Zelensky said that attacks on Russian territory were an “inevitable, natural, and absolutely fair process” of the war between the two countries.
In a video message from the western Ukrainian city of Ivano-Frankivsk, Zelensky asserted that Ukraine was growing more powerful. “Today is the 522nd day of the so-called ‘special military operation,’ which the Russian leadership expected to last for a week or two,” he said.
Conclusion
Reports conclude that although there has not been much progress demonstrated on the battlefield, Ukraine has increased its drone attacks in Crimea, in cross-border operations, and deep within Russia.
Despite the limited impact of the attacks, analysts believe Ukraine will continue attacks on Russia since it looks to deliver a powerful message: Ukraine was not simply defending its territories, but also had the capacity to fight Russia.
Statecraft Explains | Ukraine’s Increasing Drone Attacks on Russia
Russia has been hit by 25 drone attacks in August alone, according to the UK Defence Ministry’s intelligence assessment.
September 1, 2023
IMAGE SOURCE: Getty ImagesRepresentative image.