Ever since the pro-China Mohamed Muizzu got elected as the President of the Maldives by defeating his predecessor pro-India Ibrahim Solih, ties between India and the Maldives have witnessed significant friction. As demands for his removal currently rock Muizzu’s boat, we take a look at India-Maldives ties under the incumbent President in the context of the ongoing political drama.
Muizzu’s Impeachment Fiasco
Reports suggest that the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and the Democrats are planning to introduce an impeachment motion in the Majlis (Maldivian Parliament) against Muizzu. The move came after pro-government and opposition MPs clashed in the parliament over differences on nominations for cabinet members, and attempts were made to impeach the Speaker and the Deputy Speaker.
The main opposition party MDP, along with the Democrats, has reportedly garnered enough signatures to file for Mohamed Muizzu's impeachment. Learn more:https://t.co/UtaOByW8TU#India #Maldives #Muizzu #Male #China #MDP #PNC
— Statecraft (@statecraftdaily) February 3, 2024
The opposition, which is dissatisfied with Muizzu over his anti-India foreign policy, opacity of expenditure, and plans to deal with country’s financial woes, among other things, enjoys a majority in the parliament. The MDP and the Democrats have a total of 56 MPs in the Majlis, while the number required to remove the President is only 54 after a recent amendment. Meanwhile, Muizzu belongs to the People’s National Congress (PNC) and the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) coalition, which has only 17 MPs in the parliament.
The ruling coalition has questioned the legitimacy of the impeachment attempt, and the parliament is headed for elections on 17 March. While the track record of similar attempts in previous governments suggests that Muizzu will likely survive the move, any changes in the Maldivian political regime will have vital significance for India.
India-Maldives Ties Under Muizzu
Let’s take a look at how India-Maldives ties have unfolded under the Muizzu government.
“India-Out” Campaign
The anti-India sentiment associated with Muizzu dates back to the rule of former PM Ibrahim Solih. During his regime, the opposition launched an “India Out” campaign, claiming that Solih had compromised the country’s sovereignty by allowing Indian boots on Maldivian soil.
They claimed that India’s provision of two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters and a Dornier aircraft to Maldives, along with the stationing of a contingent of Indian troops, gave disproportionate control to India. To support their claims, they also launched a raging disinformation campaign in the country.
To counter the rising anti-India sentiment, Solih reaffirmed his “India-First Policy” and criminalised the opposition’s campaign. Meanwhile, Muizzu rode on the back of this anti-India wave and got elected to office.
Demand for Indian Military Removal
Upon assuming charge, Muizzu demanded that India remove its military presence from the archipelagic country, aiming to fulfil his poll promise. The Maldivian President first made the demand to India formally when Indian Environment Minister Kiren Rijiju visited the Maldives for Muizzu’s swearing-in ceremony. The demand is similar to one made during the presidency of Muizzu’s political mentor, Abdulla Yameen.
As per the latest estimates, around 88 Indian military personnel are stationed in the Maldives. Despite allegations, India has maintained that the troops are present for the technical upkeep of the aircraft and emergency evacuation services.
To resolve the recurrent matter, the two countries have now set up a core group. While, in January, the Maldives gave India a 15 March deadline for troop removal, in the latest round of talks held on 2 February, it has asked India to replace its personnel from the country in two phases — by 10 March and 10 May. However, the Indian release on the meeting made no mention of these dates.
Visit to Turkey, China
Muizzu met Indian PM Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the COP28 Summit in Dubai. However, breaking away from the tradition of Maldivian presidents going to India for their first State Visit, Muizzu chose Turkey for his first official foreign trip. He also inked a $37 million deal with Turkey to purchase drones for the Maldives to patrol its high seas, a task that was earlier performed by India along with the Maldivian National Defence Force (MDNF).
For his next official visit, the Muizzu chose China, signing around 20 critical agreements with the country and appreciating the nation’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during his five-day visit. He also urged China to reclaim its top spot in tourist arrivals to the country, amid the ongoing tussle with India.
Suspension of Agreements
The Muizzu government also started reviewing the more than 100 agreements signed by former President Solih with India. Additionally, in another move harmful to the relationship with New Delhi, Malé suspended the crucial hydrographic survey agreement signed in 2019.
The move came after the Indian High Commission in Maldives reportedly raised the issue firmly with the authorities and expressed concerns about the comments. Learn more:https://t.co/N2EvoLpBVG#India #Male #NewDelhi #Maldives #Modi #Muizzu #Lakshadweep
— Statecraft (@statecraftdaily) January 8, 2024
Racist Comments, #BoycottMaldives
In another unfortunate incident, a spat broke out between netizens of India and the Maldives when PM Modi posted pictures of his Lakshadweep visit on social media platforms. Jumping into the barrage of the dispute were three deputy ministers of Muizzu’s government who made racist remarks about Indian culture and the Indian PM.
Amid a major uproar regarding the remarks, the three ministers — Malsha Sharyf, Mariyum Shiuna and Abdulla Mahzoom Majid — were suspended, but Muizzu, who was heading to China, made no comments. Additionally, a #BoycottMaldives campaign started in India, with several Indian tourists claiming to cancel their visits to the island nation.
Along with several Indian celebrities who protested the comments, a major Indian travel portal, EaseMyTrip, also suspended bookings to the country.
Indian Budgetary Allocation for Maldives
Amid increasing friction, India has allotted a sum of Rs 600 crores (~$72.3 million) for developmental assistance to the Maldives in its recent interim budget announcement. While the sum is significantly larger than the Rs 400 crore (~$48.19 million) initially allocated in 2023-2024, it is a 22% cut from the overall expense of Rs 770.90 crore (~92.77 million) that India incurred during the period on infrastructure projects like the Greater Male Connectivity Project.
India's interim Budget details on India's grants & loans to foreign govts (Revised Budget for 2023-24, in crore)
— Sidhant Sibal (@sidhant) February 1, 2024
Afghanistan: 220
Bangladesh: 130
Bhutan: 2398.97
Nepal: 650
Maldives: 770.90
Mongolia: 5
Mauritius: 330
Seychelles: 9.91
Myanmar: 370
Chabahar: 100 pic.twitter.com/Um1bkjXjuL
Widening Rift
As the diplomatic rift deepens, in the latest development, the Maldives has accused Indian Coast Guard personnel of being spotted on three Maldivian fishing vessels in the country’s special economic zone without permission.
Way Forward for India
Amid the emergence of a new roadblock in the ties of the two nations every other day, India needs to strategise to ensure that it does not lose a strategic ally due to the internal politics of the country or social media brawls. While Maldivian dependence on India gives excellent leverage to New Delhi, it must be ensured that bilateral ties are not perceived as an impinging on Malé’s sovereignty.
Moreover, with China cementing ties with almost all of India’s close neighbours, it is imperative that India waste no time in improving its own image and regional relations. To this end, diplomatic ties need to be freed from the clutches of political fluctuations.