During a televised meeting on Wednesday, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the “safe relocation of the personnel, armaments and hardware behind the Dnieper” river from the Russian-controlled city of Kherson to “preserve” Russian troops’ lives, after Ukrainian forces captured the city of Snihurivka, 50 kilometres (kms) north of Kherson on the same day.
“For us, the life and health of Russian servicemen is always a priority. We must also take into account the threat for the civilian population,” Shoigu stressed following a briefing from the Integrated Group of Forces in Ukraine Commander, General Sergei Surovikin.
Not only that. But it means that in two of the four regions Russia claimed to “annex” — Kherson and Zaporizhzhia— it doesn’t even control their capital cities.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 9, 2022
In the meeting, Surovikin acknowledged that it was an “uneasy decision,” but reasoned, “If the Kyiv regime resorts to a larger water discharge from reservoirs or a more powerful rocket attack on the Kakhovka dam, this will create a flow of water flooding vast areas and causing civilian casualties. A further threat for civilians and of a complete isolation of our group of forces on the right bank of the Dnieper will emerge.” He also noted, “Kherson and adjacent settlements in the current conditions cannot be fully supplied and function.”
According to Ukrainian estimates from October, about 30,000 to 50,000 Russian troops were stationed on Dnieper’s right bank.
Giving up Kherson has already led to a huge surge of criticism in Russia. Potentially it might lead to serious loss of faith in Putin and, as consequence, destabilize situation in Russia.
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 9, 2022
In fact, the Kremlin started shaping public opinion in Russia to prepare pro-war supporters for the retreat from Kherson at the start of this month. Nevertheless, Russian pro-war supporters have condemned the move. Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov has called it “Russia’s biggest geopolitical defeat since the moment of the collapse of the USSR.”
Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, noted that while the decision is “not a victorious step,” it is important “not to agonise, not to get paranoidal, but to draw conclusions and work on mistakes.” “The decision taken by Surovikin is not easy, but he acted like a man who is not afraid of responsibility,” he asserted.
A real (or a fake) RU withdrawal from Kherson will provide a lot of intelligence.
— MarkHertling (@MarkHertling) November 9, 2022
Intel will consist of new targets, signal intercepts, routes, new locations for assembly areas and supply caches, and things "left behind" that will indicate the capabilities of those who left. 3/
Similarly, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov emphasises, “General Surovikin made a difficult but right choice between senseless sacrifices for the sake of loud statements and saving the priceless lives of soldiers,” adding, “I believe that Surovikin acted like a real military general, not afraid of criticism.”
However, Ukrainian authorities remain apprehensive of Russia’s latest move, with Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksiy Arestovych noting, “They are moving out but not as much as would be taking place if it was a full pullout or regrouping,” adding, “For the moment, we don’t know their intentions - will they engage in fighting with us and will they try to hold the city of Kherson? They are moving very slowly.”
Actions speak louder than words. We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight. A part of the ru-group is preserved in the city, and additional reserves are charged to the region. 🇺🇦 is liberating territories based on intelligence data, not staged TV statements.
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) November 9, 2022
Similarly, Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told the Associated Press (AP): “So far, we do not see any signs that Russia is completely leaving the city, which means that these statements may be disinformation.” Likewise, Kherson’s Ukrainian-appointed governor, Yaroslav Yanushevych, cautioned residents “not to give in to euphoria,” while Serhii Khlan, another regional official, revealed that Russian troops had destroyed five bridges to slow down Ukrainian forces.
In a similar vein, military analyst Oleg Zhdanov told AP that Russia’s retreat “could very well be an ambush and a Russian trap to force the Ukrainians to go on the offensive, force them to penetrate the Russian defenses, and in response to strike with a powerful blow from the flanks.”
NATO Chief @jensstoltenberg tells me that a partial Russian withdrawal from Kherson shows that support provided by the military alliance to Ukraine is working.
— Christiane Amanpour (@amanpour) November 9, 2022
"It demonstrates the courage... of Ukrainian armed forces and also the importance of the continued support.” pic.twitter.com/E5ijdvfdeo
Likewise, during his nightly address on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned that the Ukrainian forces are “strengthening our positions step by step” in the south, possibly referring to its capture of Snihurivka. He underscored, “Our emotions must be restrained – always during war. […] When we have our result, everyone will see it. For sure,” adding, “The enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make "gestures of goodwill." We fight our way up.”
According to Western officials, Ukraine would be in a stronger position to negotiate with Russia if it manages to take over Kherson. However, Moscow would likely be unwilling to resume peace talks if President Vladimir Putin feels they are “not negotiating from a position of strength.”