Just one week before the scheduled no-confidence motion against Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan, Punjab Chief Minister (CM) Sardar Usman Buzdar submitted his resignation to the embattled PM, who has replaced him with Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) leader Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi in a bid to win the trust vote.
Buzdar resigned at the request of Khan, who has succumbed to pressure from several members of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party and its allies in order to secure the PML-Q’s support for the upcoming vote.
Imran Khan asked Waseem Akram Plus Usman Buzdar to resign in the presence of Pervaiz Elahi. This must be hugely insulting to Buzdar and an eye opener for everyone who believes Imran Khan isn’t interested in power at the cost of friends and principles pic.twitter.com/834rddouFz
— Murtaza Ali Shah (@MurtazaViews) March 28, 2022
According to Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting Farrukh Habib, Elahi met with PM Khan and settled “all issues,” following which the PML-Q declared their support for the PTI government. Khan’s aide, Shahbaz Gill, tweeted in Urdu, “Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf will support Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi as a candidate for the Chief Minister, and the PML-Q has announced to support PM in a no-confidence motion.”
Several coalition members had been seeking the removal of Buzdar. In fact, a breakaway faction led by Jahangir Tareen had previously accused the Punjab government of “completely failing to fulfil its mandate and bring about the promised change.” Consequently, multiple Members of National Assembly (MNA), including members of Khan’s PTI party, had communicated their intent to vote against the PM over his continued support for Buzdar.
On Monday, the Legislative Assembly in Punjab also called for a trust vote against Buzdar, with 127 provincial lawmakers supporting the motion and 120 urging the Secretariat to summon a session within two weeks. The resolution accused the now-former CM of failing to abide by his duties as stipulated in the Constitution and of ruining the democratic institutions in the province.
PML-N files no confidence motion against Usman Buzdar
— omar r quraishi (@omar_quraishi) March 28, 2022
Basically, IK’s reluctance to get rid of a CM whom many of his own party members didn’t even approve of has given the PML-N the initiative - Pervez Elahi will likely be the next CM if this succeeds pic.twitter.com/GTgfsb3RLQ
Senior leaders of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an alliance of opposition parties, accused Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) leaders Maryam Nawaz and Nawaz Sharif of being inflexible to PML-Q’s demands, which they say resulted in the opposition losing the party’s support in the upcoming trust vote.
Dawn quoted a senior leader of the PDM as saying: “The PML-Q leadership wanted the chief minister’s slot for the remaining term [of the incumbent assemblies] and up to 20 seats in the next term. The Pakistan Peoples Party's (PPP) top leadership — Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari — agreed to these demands, but the elder Sharif and Maryam were not ready to budge.”
The opposition, whose request requires Khan to gather the support of at least half of the National Assembly (NA), needs a simple majority of 172 to pass the motion. Khan has called the opposition’s attempt to oust him and his PTI government a “foreign-funded conspiracy” and accused them of organising the trust vote to secure a National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), which would provide them with immunity from legal action for corruption and money laundering.
Despite having a meagre five seats in the NA, the PML-Q is a critical coalition party for Khan, as it has vowed to work with other coalition partners to gather support in the upcoming trust vote. The PTI has 155 members in the NA, with its coalition partners Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), PML-Q, Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), and the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) having seven, five, five, and three seats, respectively. Therefore, it now appears that Khan has the support of 175 MNAs, enough to guarantee his survival in the trust vote.
Sources within the opposition have previously alleged that they are confident of gaining the support of at least 202 MNAs as several members from the ruling coalition government have defected. The BAP has reportedly already “accepted the opposition’s invitation” to support the no-confidence motion against Khan. It is unclear how these calculations will change following the PML-Q’s decision to stand by the PTI.
Support for the opposition may deteriorate even further as Khan seeks to satisfy allies by accepting their demands. Others have argued, however, that the PM may have left it too late by giving new Punjab CM Elahi merely a week to convince allies to vote in Khan’s favour.