On October 18, the foreign ministers of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States (US) met virtually to build on their already warm ties by vowing to jointly cooperate in the economic, security, political, and diplomatic arenas. A US State Department readout said the meeting focussed on trade, climate change, energy, maritime security, and public health. Furthermore, it stressed the importance of the Abraham Accords and called for further progress in the normalisation of ties between Israel and the Arab world for “future opportunities for collaboration in the region and globally.”
Many reports and commentators have said the meeting marks the formation of a new “Quad” that is capable of influencing global policy and this is in no way a far-fetched assessment. All four nations share economic and strategic ties with each other.
For instance, following Israel and the UAE boosted economic and trade ties following the 2020 normalisation deal. Last month, the UAE announced that it sought to increase its economic activity with Israel by $1 trillion by 2031. India also shares great economic and security ties with both Israel and the UAE. In 2017 alone, the UAE accounted for the largest share of remittance flow to India and in terms of defence imports, Israel is the third-largest supplier of arms to India. Similarly, the US is a major security and economic partner of Israel and the UAE and has signed deals to supply its fifth-generation F35 fighter jets to both countries. Furthermore, US-India strategic ties have grown significantly recently and both see one other as partners in combating China’s rise.
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Besides the obvious security and economic ties that have pushed the four countries towards establishing a solid alliance, they also share an interest in limiting the growing assertiveness of Turkey. India, Israel, the UAE, and the US have all expressed concerns about Turkey’s actions, which seem to run counter to their strategic goals.
India views Turkey’s stance on Kashmir and its growing alliance with Pakistan as a cause for concern. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s desire to project his country as the champion of political Islam has led him to make statements on Kashmir that have angered New Delhi. In 2019, Erdoğan criticised India for revoking the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir and its subsequent clampdown of the region. Earlier this year, he once again raised the issue of Kashmir at the United Nations General Assembly in New York and called on India to adhere to UN resolutions on the issue.
Erdoğan’s statements were welcomed by Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has repeatedly praised the ties between both countries. Pakistan and Turkey share a strong strategic relationship and Islamabad sees Ankara as a reliable arms supplier, especially in light of Turkey’s intervention in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.
India has reacted sharply to Erdoğan’s statement on Kashmir by urging Turkey to not interfere in its internal affairs. New Delhi has also raked up the issue of Cyprus and PM Narendra Modi cancelled a visit to Ankara in 2019 over the Turkish President’s comments. In addition, India has sought to deepen ties with Greece by supporting Athens’ position on the Mediterranean dispute with Ankara and enhancing military ties.
Similarly, Israel has supported Greece and Cyprus’ claims in the Mediterranean over Turkey’s as a result of Erdoğan’s controversial statements regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict and Turkey’s support of Hamas. During the 11-day war between Israel and Hamas in May, the Turkish President was extremely critical of Israel’s military response and made comments that invoked anti-Semitic tropes. Turkey has also hosted Hamas officials in the past, including the group’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and welcomed its role in the Palestinian issue, something that has angered Israel.
The UAE, meanwhile, views Turkey’s rising role in the Islamic world as a threat to its influence, and that of Saudi Arabia, as the arbiter of political Islam. Abu Dhabi and Ankara have also clashed over regional conflicts in the Middle East. In the Libyan civil war that began in 2014, the mercenaries of Turkey and the UAE fought against each other. In Syria, Turkey has accused the UAE of supporting the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey view as terrorist organisations. The Gulf country, on the other hand, criticised Turkey’s support of Qatar during the 2017 Gulf Cooperation Council crisis between Doha and the rest of the Arab world.
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The US’ relations with Turkey, too, have grown more complicated over the years. While Turkey is a member of NATO, the US has condemned its closeness with Russia and threatened to sanction Ankara over its decision to purchase the Russian S-400 missile defence system. The US even excluded Turkey from the F35 fighter jet programme. To make matters worse, US President Joe Biden in April recognised the Armenian genocide, which Turkey denies happened.
Therefore, considering that all four countries have a troubled relationship with Turkey, it is only logical that they form a group as a counter to Turkey’s assertiveness. That being said, this new Quad is not just about the opposition to Turkey. There are clear economic and strategic benefits that each country can reap from this alliance.
According to reports, India, Israel, and the UAE plan to develop an Arabian-Mediterranean corridor that could “radically reconfigure trade patterns between the Indian Ocean Region, the Middle East and Europe.” The proposed corridor would connect India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Greece and could possibly even see US involvement in light of the recent meeting.
Moreover, the Quad has been touted as a strategic tool for India and the US to counter China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); in this light, the establishment of an Arabian-Mediterranean corridor could serve this purpose. Additionally, Israel would use this alliance to boost its regional standing and increase the prospects of normalisation with other Arab countries, something which could prove useful in its conflict with Iran. The UAE, on the other hand, would look to project itself as a supporter of liberalisation and free trade, and at the same time move away from its oil economy.
In conclusion, while the alliance’s stated goal is the strengthening of economic and strategic ties between all four countries, it also acts as a forum through which they can counter Turkey. Its success in balancing Ankara’s assertiveness depends on whether the grouping is willing to address each other’s concerns about Turkey and take necessary actions in this regard, something that will only become clearer in the coming months.