Efforts to reach a nuclear deal between Iran and the West have oscillated between the brink of success and failure. In fact, after weeks of speculation that a deal was imminent, talks have once again failed to materialise. Amid these turbulent negotiations, Israel has never once wavered from its position that reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), would be a disaster for global security.
Israel has for years taken measures aimed at sabotaging Iran’s nuclear programme but significantly ramped up its aggression following the beginning of talks to revive the JCPOA in Vienna in April 2021. Israel not only increased threats to obliterate Iranian nuclear facilities but is also believed to be behind the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and military officials. Iran also blames Israel for attacks on several nuclear sites, including Natanz.
Israel has simultaneously redoubled diplomatic efforts to convince countries not to enter a deal with Tehran, with its leaders having visited the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and hosted top officials from these countries to persuade them to oppose a deal with Iran. Defence Minister Benny Gantz even boasted last week that the nuclear talks are in the “emergency room” after Israel’s aggressive lobbying.
In this respect, Israel has been criticised for not giving diplomacy a chance. One of the key arguments in favour of restoring the Iran nuclear deal is that the JCPOA enabled the international community to enforce a formal monitoring mechanism on the Iranian nuclear programme. Furthermore, according to the terms of the 2015 agreement, Iran could only enrich uranium up to 3.67% for the next fifteen years. This meant that Iran’s path to a weapon would have been delayed for over a decade. Additionally, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi have repeatedly stressed that Tehran will not manufacture a nuclear weapon and that its atomic programme is only meant for scientific purposes.
#Iran Gov't declares 6.5 kg of 60% enriched uranium and 108 kg of 20%
— Scott Lucas (@ScottLucas_EA) June 16, 2021
Under #IranNuclear Deal, Iran gave up 20% enrichment and limited to 3.67%
Declared total far beyond IAEA report in May on 20% and 60% production https://t.co/RJBRbzfZBm
Israel, however, is adamant that its arch-rival’s nuclear programme has a nuclear component. In fact, the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have previously accused Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons. A Washington-based security organisation in 2002 provided satellite images of Iranian nuclear sites fully prepared to manufacture nuclear weapons. Iranian nuclear documents stolen by Israeli agents in 2018 also revealed that Tehran maintained an intensive research programme to build nuclear weapons and even purchased weapons parts for this.
Moreover, current efforts to restore the deal are in limbo because of Iran’s refusal to allow the IAEA to conduct an investigation into unexplained uranium traces found at several nuclear sites across the country. While Brussels and Washington have demanded that Tehran allow the nuclear watchdog to conduct the probe, Iranian officials claim that the IAEA’s accusations are baseless. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has condemned Iran’s inability to explain the origin of the uranium traces and its reluctance to cooperate with the agency. He maintains that as long as Tehran does not provide the agency with “technically credible explanations,” the IAEA would never drop its probe. Latching on to Grossi’s remarks, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid cited Tehran’s non-compliance with the IAEA as an example of the Islamic Republic hiding its nuclear weapons programme.
Israel also contends that reviving the JCPOA is futile and only makes Iran’s path to an atomic bomb a lot smoother. In fact, Israeli officials have noted that Iran has already crossed the limits set by the JCPOA and could easily produce a nuclear bomb if it decides to do so. This has been corroborated by the IAEA several times. In its most recent report, the watchdog claimed that Tehran has enriched enough near-weapons grade uranium to produce a nuclear bomb in a matter of weeks. The report said Iran has a large stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to produce the minimum weapons-grade level of 25kg of 90% enriched uranium. This is way beyond the 3.67% limit set by the JCPOA and has significantly reduced Iran's “breakout time” from years to weeks. Lapid has also criticised the most recent proposal by the EU to reach a deal with Iran, saying that its terms do not address the concerns raised by the IAEA.
Iran Talks:
— Negar Mortazavi نگار مرتضوی (@NegarMortazavi) August 24, 2022
-US says deal is closer now than it was two weeks ago but gaps remain
-EU top diplomat @JosepBorrellF said Monday that the Iranian response to his proposal was "reasonable"
-IAEA says it will not close probe into Iran's unexplained traces of uranium without answers
Iran’s refusal to cooperate with IAEA and the reduced time required for it to produce a nuclear weapon have added to Israeli fears that a nuclear Iran is not a far-fetched prospect. Israel views Iran’s nuclear programme as an “existential threat,” as Iranian leaders, including Khamenei, have threatened to “annihilate” Israel and wipe it from the world map. Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said during the 1990s that one nuclear bomb would be enough to eliminate Israel. More recently, President Ebrahim Raisi, while casting doubts on the Holocaust, said Israel is a “false regime” and indicated that it has no right to exist.
These concerns, coupled with Iran’s rising military footprint in the region, have led Israel to object to any talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA. Reaching a deal would remove sanctions on Iran and provide it with almost $100 billion in additional funds, Lapid said in August, claiming that Tehran would divert this revenue stream towards funding its proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Israel has also pointed to Iran’s attacks against the US and allies amid ongoing negotiations. For instance, Iran has launched cyberattacks against the US, NATO countries, and Israel, and also carried out assassination attempts against dissident activists in Europe and the US. Tehran has even supplied the Russian military with suicide drones to use against Ukraine’s armed forces. These actions, Israel argues, are undermining global security and give sufficient reason to abandon nuclear discussions with Iran.
All things considered, it is clear that Israel is not acting on irrational fears. On the contrary, Israel is a rational actor whose moves are based on valid concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme. It is particularly frustrated by the West’s willingness to sign a deal with Tehran despite admitting that Iran is in violation of the deal and has crossed the threshold set by the JCPOA. Therefore, Israel will continue its aggressive actions so long as the West appears eager to revive the JCPOA or sign a weak deal with Iran.