On the morning of 17 October, several projectiles whizzed towards the headquarters of Ukrainian energy company Ukrenergo in Kyiv, causing massive infrastructural damage and killing four people. AFP photographer Yasuyoshi Chiba, who was present in Kyiv at the time, captured a clear image of one of the projectiles, which has since been identified as an Iranian Shahed-136 suicide drone.
The image not only gave credence to the United States' claims that Iran has supplied Russia with hundreds of drones but also raised fears that Moscow could prolong the war with external support. Iran has also reportedly sold cruise and ballistic missiles to the Russian military and the US has said that the Iranian military has sent trainers to Crimea to help their Russian counterparts operate the drones.
Armed with visual evidence of Iran’s complicity in helping Russia, the West has doubled down on its efforts to punish Tehran, including threatening to terminate ongoing efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the JCPOA). Iran has been desperate to remove Western sanctions and is thus keen on finalising an elusive deal with world powers.
In fact, up until a few weeks ago, the US and the West appeared determined to ink an agreement with Iran, although negotiations remained in limbo owing to differences over the fine print of a potential deal. However, just as they appeared to be reaching the finish line, lawmakers in Washington are now pressuring the Biden administration to abandon talks entirely, with Iran’s participation in the Ukraine war having effectively buried hopes of signing an agreement anytime soon.
Without an agreement, Iran cannot hope for sanctions removal and its adventures in Ukraine would only constrict its struggling economy further. Already faced with a barrage of economic restrictions over its nuclear programme and its crackdown on anti-hijab protesters, the Iranian economy must brace for another round of crippling punishments for its role in supporting Russia. As Iran sees sanctions removal as a crucial part of any future deal, it is hard to imagine Tehran agreeing to any deal with the possibility of fresh sanctions looming.
#UPDATE Russian 'kamikaze drones' attacked Kyiv early Monday, Ukraine's presidency said, describing the assault as an act of desperation
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) October 17, 2022
Air raid sirens sounded in the city shortly before the first strike, followed by sirens across most of the countryhttps://t.co/LbD1hNeSxH pic.twitter.com/RYGZu2AUlK
One of the main points raised by several US and Ukrainian officials is that by supplying weapons to Russia, Iran is violating the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 2231, which is also part of the JCPOA. The resolution bans Iran from transferring drones capable of flying 300 kilometres.
Additionally, removing sanctions would essentially gift Iran billions of dollars that were earlier out of reach, which opponents of the deal argue would allow Tehran to not only support Russia but also fund other wars in the Middle East. Therefore, signing a deal would enable Iran to replenish Russia’s depleting arsenal and also provide Moscow with a way to circumvent Western economic restrictions.
Despite denials from the Kremlin and Iranian Government, a Russian official has admitted Iran has supplied drones used by Russia to target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
— Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (@FCDOGovUK) November 1, 2022
Iran’s support for Putin’s brutal and illegal war is deplorable.
The UK has sanctioned those involved. pic.twitter.com/cX9sTFLQKp
So far, the US has resisted Israel’s demands to either add tougher provisions to the deal or abandon talks altogether. However, Iranian support for Russia could push the US to heed Israel’s advice and adopt a tougher position, for instance by including restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile and satellite programmes, something which Tehran staunchly opposes.
All things considered, it is abundantly clear that Iran’s involvement in Ukraine has severely jeopardised negotiations to reach a nuclear deal. That being said, Iran is no doubt fully aware of this and is taking a calculated gamble by placing nuclear talks on the sacrificial altar. Tehran would not take this significant risk if did not stand to gain anything from supporting Russia.
For instance, Iran hopes to test the durability of its drones and its overall military efficiency in Ukraine. It is vital for Iran to test its military preparedness in case it finds itself in a military confrontation. So far, Iranian drones have served their purpose in Ukraine. It is estimated that the Shahed-136 alone has helped Russia destroy around 40% of Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure. This would leave Ukraine with a major shortage of power during winter, possibly weakening Ukrainian resolve.
Iran has also supplied its proxies, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon, with thousands of drones. In the event of a conflict with Israel, experts note that Iran could ask Hezbollah to fire drones at Israel, which could overwhelm Israel’s air defences and cause massive damage. In essence, Iran using the Ukraine war as a testing ground to determine whether arming its proxies with these drones would be effective.
Participating in Ukraine also allows Iran to project its military reach and display its defensive capabilities even in the face of debilitating sanctions. Iran’s military footprint extends to Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and even the Palestinian territories. With its involvement in Ukraine, Iran has shown that it is capable of shaping global conflicts, something which Iran’s rivals like Israel and Saudi Arabia should take seriously.
Nevertheless, while there are advantages to be gained from its involvement in Ukraine, Iran’s gambit is not worth risking a nuclear deal with world powers. A nuclear agreement would not only remove sanctions imposed on Iran but also portray Tehran as a responsible global actor. Supplying weapons to Russia, on the other hand, would result in Iran becoming even more of a pariah, something it can ill afford.
Moreover, the war in Ukraine is not going well for Russia. Given the Ukrainian military’s stunning successes on the battlefield, various Western intelligence agencies have predicted Russia’s defeat. If the West is to be believed, Iranian support only prolongs an inevitable Russian defeat. Therefore, Iran must carefully consider whether supporting Russia’s losing campaign is worth sacrificing a much-needed nuclear deal and damaging its already teetering economy.