India and Pakistan released a joint statement saying that the two countries’ Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMO), Lt Gen Paramjit Singh Sangha and his Pakistani counterpart Maj Gen Nauman Zakaria, had agreed to a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) that came into effect at midnight on February 24.
The statement read: “The two sides reviewed the situation along the Line of Control and all other sectors in a free, frank and cordial atmosphere.” It added: “In the interest of achieving mutually beneficial and sustainable peace along the borders, the two DGsMO agreed to address each other’s core issues and concerns which have propensity to disturb peace and lead to violence. Both sides agreed for strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control and all other sectors with effect from midnight 24/25 Feb 2021.” Finally, they committed to using the hotline mechanism and border flag meetings to discuss any future course of action in order to “resolve any unforeseen situation or misunderstanding”.
Shishir Gupta of the Hindustan Times revealed that this joint statement is the product of “months” of “back-channel conversations” between Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and his Pakistani counterpart Moeed Yusuf. In fact, Gupta said that an unnamed source had told him that the two sides had even held a face-to-face meeting in a “third country” and that Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar were all privy to these developments.
While the announcement may appear to be historic, similar agreements were signed in 2018 as well as 2003, but were ultimately ignored. In fact, official data from the Ministry of Defence reports that Pakistan committed 2,936 ceasefire violations in 2018, 3,289 in 2019, and an alarming 5,133 in 2020. Likewise, Pakistan claims that India committed 3,012 ceasefire violations in 2020. It is hoped that the latest agreement will broker at least some sort of temporary peace like the 2003 agreement, after which there were no ceasefire violations for three years.
Aside from back-channel talks, Pakistan has also publicly hinted at de-escalation. On February 2, Pakistani Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa said, “Pakistan and India must resolve the longstanding issue of Jammu and Kashmir in a dignified and peaceful manner” and said that it was “time to extend a hand of peace in all directions”.
There has also been a decrease in the number of ceasefire violations along the LoC in recent weeks. Furthermore, Pakistan curiously omitted any mention of Kashmir at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) meeting last week, which was led by Indian PM Narendra Modi. This was in sharp contrast to Pakistan’s comments at the SAARC meeting last year.
India, too, has been more receptive to its neighbour in the new year. This week, India allowed Pakistani PM Imran Khan to use Indian airspace when he travelled to Sri Lanka. This is in direct opposition to Pakistan’s refusal to allow Indian President Ram Nath Kovind to use Pakistani airspace in 2019, when he was flying to Europe. Pakistan also blocked PM Narendra Modi from using its airspace in September 2019, when he was flying to the United States to attend a United Nations (UN) General Assembly meeting, and again in October 2019, when he was visiting Saudi Arabia.
Likewise, Indian Amy chief Gen MM Naravane said on Wednesday that India seeks peace along all its frontiers, including the LoC with Pakistan, the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, and its border with Myanmar. Addressing a virtual seminar, Naravane said, “With our continuous engagement with Pakistan, we will be able to prevail over them (for border peace)...as unsettled borders help no one.”
Local politicians like Mehbooba Mufti, who previously served as the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, said that the agreement was a “big and welcome development” and said that “dialogue is the only way forward if both countries want to stop the unending cycle of violence and bloodshed”.
#UNSG welcomes Joint statement of India and #Pakistan on #ceasefire pic.twitter.com/VZZdjjbqeR
— DD News (@DDNewslive) February 26, 2021
Likewise, representatives from the central government have also welcomed the announcement. Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said, “India desires normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan. We have always maintained that we are committed to addressing issues, if any, in a peaceful bilateral manner.”
Meanwhile, Pakistani NSA Yusuf rhetorically asked reporters, “Do you think this could happen without efforts or without pressure, something which India has not agreed to all these months and years?” He went on to claim, “This is our success, the success of diplomacy and god willing more roads will open in the future, so that the resolution of Kashmir that we want, the way we want will happen.”
Army sources have, however, said that the ceasefire agreement does not impact India’s counterterrorism operations along the border. ANI quoted the army as saying: “The situation along northern borders has no bearing on our decision along the LoC on the Western front. The Army is prepared to meet all operational challenges and remains poised to mitigate threats.”
The ceasefire agreement must also not be misconstrued as Pakistan relenting in its territorial claims and ambitions in the region. Its omission of any mention of Kashmir at the recent SAARC meeting was an anomaly and stands in opposition to several recent comments made by Pakistani officials.
In fact, in the same breath that Pakistani Gen Bajwa offered a “hand of peace”, he also said that the “human tragedy” of Kashmir must be brough to its “logical conclusion”. Likewise, Foreign Office spokesperson Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri reiterated Pakistan’s opposition to India’s August 2019 abrogation of Article 370, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, saying, “India […] has vitiated the environment with its illegal, inhuman and unilateral actions of 5th August 2019.”
Furthermore, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said on February 4, “India stands fully exposed before the international community for usurping the fundamental freedoms of the Kashmiri people. India’s human rights violations have removed the façade of it being a so-called ‘democracy’.” On the same day, the Chairperson of the Parliamentary Committee on Kashmir, Shehryar Khan Afridi said that that the Pakistani parliament would “act as a new centre to push Kashmir diplomacy” and accused India of “genocide”.
On February 8, Foreign Minister Qureshi called on the 57-member Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to pressure India to end its human rights violations in Kashmir. Qureshi also raised the issue of Kashmir during his visit to Egypt last week.
On Wednesday, at the UN Human Rights Council, Pakistan human rights minister Shireen Mazari alleged that India had “exploited the pandemic” to increase the suppression of the Kashmiri people. Furthermore, during his visit to Sri Lanka this week, PM Khan remarked, “Our only dispute is Kashmir, and it can only be resolved through dialogue.”
Therefore, while the ceasefire announcement by the DGMOs of India and Pakistan is certainly a welcome development, one must remain wary of expecting this to resolve deep and underling issues between the countries, particularly given how previous ceasefire objectives have failed to achieve their objective. Nevertheless, given that India also recently agreed with China to disengage along the LAC, New Delhi is clearly seeking to reduce conflict and instability along its borders.