Former Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale wrote an article for Carnegie India, answering the question: “What should India do before the next Taiwan crisis.” Therein, Gokhale argues that, given the regional and national impact of a future conflict and India’s growing geopolitical and economic closeness with East and Southeast Asia, New Delhi must prepare for a row in the coming decades and formulate policies alongside its key partners accordingly.
Why India Should Be Concerned
Gokhale predicts that the Taiwan conflict will sky-rocket in significance in the coming two decades, given Beijing’s attempts to unite it with mainland China and Taiwan retorting by developing military capabilities.
He adds that as China seeks to assert control over Taiwan and cement its position as a “dominant global power,” the US is seeking to counter these efforts in the name of freedom and democracy.
My new long form paper on a key question - ‘What Should India do before the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis?’ Thank you @CarnegieIndia for publishing it 1/5 https://t.co/gEUe1Vm3fD
— Vijay Gokhale (@VGokhale59) April 17, 2023
Against this backdrop, he notes that the conflict is likely to “rapidly escalate” and further impact the global economy, which is already struggling with the impact of the Ukraine War. In addition, the conflict can disrupt freedom of navigation through the Taiwan Strait.
In particular, Gokhale posits that a conflict in the region could impact India’s relations with East and Southeast Asia. To this end, he says that India must “pay constant and careful attention” to the Taiwan issue.
Impact on India’s National and Regional Security
In light of the recent US-China tensions, the Taiwan conflict has peaked in the past few months. Meanwhile, India has been expanding geopolitical and economic ties with vital Indo-Pacific players such as Japan and ASEAN.
At the same time, China’s growth as a global power could prospectively benefit the region and India’s economy. Nevertheless, Beijing’s recent aggression in the Indo-Pacific has “impacted the positive trends” and made the area unpredictable and conflict-prone.
While noting that the exact predictions of the economic impact of the crisis are limited, Gokhale showed that India is more dependent on trade in the South China Sea than it was in the 1950s. Citing a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) study, he said New Delhi’s trade through the region increased from $123 billion in 2009 to $208 billion in 2016. This number has likely increased in the years since.
Read more: How Long Can India Maintain Its “Studied Silence” on Taiwan?
Additionally, a conflict in Taiwan will further impact the global semiconductor market, given that Taiwan produces 92% of the most advanced chips. It is also a hub for submarine cables.
Gokhale goes on to quote a Rhodium Group study, highlighting that the total impact of prospective blockades on trade with Taiwan, and through the Taiwan Strait, will result in economic losses of $2 trillion.
India’s Past Role in Conflicts in Taiwan
Countering the misconception about India not having a role in crisis management during previous conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, Gokhale details New Delhi’s historical position in earlier clashes in 1954-1955 and 1958. To this end, he examines the evidence in Indian, British, and American archives.
Gokhale recalls that India had transferred “diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China (Taiwan) to the newly established People’s Republic in China [PRC].” With this, there is a common misconception that New Delhi “took no further interest in the Taiwan issue.” Even during the Korean and Vietnam wars, then-PM Jawaharlal Nehru believed that India “must have a say in [its] destiny and in Asia’s destiny.”
As a result, when tensions between the US and PRC surged, India offered to mediate between the two countries. In addition, Nehru also discussed the crisis in the parliament in August 1954, arguing that New Delhi must “throw [its] weight on the side of peace.”
Who's Who of Taiwan foreign ministry including FM Wu, India's representative to Taiwan-- Director-General of India-Taipei Association (India's de facto envoy) Gourangalal Das share stage at #Diwali celebrations in Taipei in a sign of growing societal closeness. https://t.co/IchJqYoKDE pic.twitter.com/2g1yxIlSEP
— Sidhant Sibal (@sidhant) November 13, 2020
The former Indian diplomat further provides evidence to show that Nehru tried to mediate the crisis to reach a mutually agreeable ceasefire between the US and China on several occasions. However, the US believed India to be biased and questioned its sincerity, pushing it to choose the UK as a neutral party.
Consequently, India did not play any role in the final act of the First Taiwan Strait Crisis. Nevertheless, Gokhale reiterated that India “was actively involved in diplomatic efforts since it served its geopolitical interests.”
Thereafter, in 1958, the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis arose, causing India to support a peaceful resolution to the conflict again. Unfortunately, by this time, China “no longer felt that India was unbiased and neutral,” solidifying American concerns.
India Must Prepare for Upcoming Taiwan Conflict
Given India’s past diplomatic efforts on the issue, Gokhale argues that mediating for peace in the Taiwan Strait does not contradict its historic foreign policy on the subject, along with its recognition of the one-China principle and the PRC.
Gokhale highlighted that India has, since the 1950s, considered reviving ties with Taiwan on several occasions. In 1995, it set up an India-Taipei Association, establishing a “nonofficial presence” in Taiwan.
India-Taiwan Relations:
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In conclusion, Gokhale underlines that India must introduce a “range of policies to deal with any contingency” in the region.
“A detailed study of internal developments (including the possibility of a change in government in Taiwan in 2024), cross-strait exchanges between the PRC and Taiwan, and the triangular dynamics between the PRC, the United States, and Taiwan is required without delay,” Gokhale stresses.
He added that the assessment will depend on India balancing its concerns about “Chinese encroachment” and “Chinese power.” As a result, New Delhi is likely to take a “passive approach.”
Nevertheless, China is likely to believe that India will “tilt” towards the US, and retaliate with aggressive posturing along the Line of Actual Control.
Given the multi-faceted impact of the crisis, Gokhale pushes for India raising the Taiwan Strait issue with its partners sooner than later.