A little more than a year since violent fighting broke out between the Ethiopian military and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels, there seems to be no end in sight to the conflict. In fact, the situation has worsened as the fighting has spread outside of the Tigray region and is threatening to spill over into the capital, Addis Ababa.
Yet, the Ethiopian government led by Prime Minister (PM) Abiy Ahmed has done very little to calm tensions and put a lid on the conflict. Instead, Abiy’s government has taken a series of aggressive steps that are only likely to prolong the civil war and inflame tensions.
Last month, the government launched airstrikes against the TPLF in Tigray that indiscriminately targeted civilians and vital infrastructure, including medical clinics and factories. Additionally, the government has blocked aid from reaching Tigray’s vulnerable population and even expelled United Nations (UN) officials for “meddling” in its internal affairs. Authorities in Addis Ababa have also rounded up and detained ethnic Tigrayans who have been accused of disloyalty to the country.
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These drastic measures stem from the government’s belief that it holds the upper hand in the conflict with the TPLF. PM Abiy has repeatedly boasted about Ethiopia’s military superiority and the many ways in which his government would crush the rebels. In November 2020, Abiy dismissed concerns that Ethiopia might descend into chaos as “unfounded.” Earlier this month, he said that Ethiopians will “bury this enemy [TPLF] with our blood and bones and make the glory of Ethiopia high again.” Yet, Abiy has neither prevented the conflict from descending into chaos nor has he been able to “bury” the TPLF.
On the contrary, the Tigray rebels have been gaining more and more ground. In June, the rebels mounted a new offensive against government forces and captured key towns in Tigray, including its capital Mekelle. A month later, they launched attacks against the Amhara regional government and, in October, claimed they had taken the strategic towns of Dessie and Kombolcha, including the highway linking landlocked Ethiopia to the port of Djibouti. Moreover, the TPLF, emboldened by their successes, have suggested that they might advance towards Addis Ababa and overthrow Abiy’s government.
Apart from losing territory to the “enemy,” the Ethiopian military has also lost several important battles to the TPLF. The recapture of Mekelle in June by the rebels was a major turning point in the conflict that started last November. Not only did the TPLF rout the numerically superior Ethiopian military but also captured around 7,000 government soldiers and paraded them through the streets of Tigray for four days. Shortly after the defeat, Abiy’s government declared a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew its forces from Tigray. According to The Economist, the move was meant to “mask the defeat of its forces and allow them time to retreat.”
Also Read: The Tigray Conflict Cannot Be Resolved So Long as Both Sides See Themselves Winning
All things considered, the Ethiopian government’s belief that it has an upper hand in the conflict with the TPLF is clearly not grounded in reality. In this context, the question arises as to why Abiy’s government continues with its aggressive tactics and insists on victory over the rebels, despite taking major military and economic losses.
The answer possibly lies in Abiy’s belief that he commands the popular support of the people of Ethiopia. When Abiy was sworn in as the PM in 2018, there was widespread hope among Ethiopians that he would change the country for the better. His role in ending the 20-year-war with Eritrea added to his support and even won him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Even during the war, thousands have regularly marched in support of the PM.
However, there is no guarantee that this support will last. The tables could be turned in the blink of an eye if Abiy fails to deliver on his promises. The loss of territory, failure on the battlefield, economic woes, and the threat of the TPLF coming back to power could potentially lead to the PM losing his popularity.
The conflict has left Abiy stretching to defend excessive spending on the war effort and neglecting other problems like poverty, hunger, and malnutrition. According to a Trading Economics forecast in August, Ethiopia’s military expenditure will reach $502 million by the end of the year, up from $460 million last year. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, too, has said the war has “already drained over a billion dollars from the country’s coffers.”
The war has prevented Abiy from implementing the economic reforms he promised when he came to power in 2018 and the intensifying conflict has scared investors away from the country. In fact, The government’s poor human rights record has led the United States (US) to cut a portion of its financial assistance to the country and remove Ethiopia from a trade programme that allows for duty-free access to Ethiopian exports.
As a result, Abiy has sought to shield the public from the truth that the military is in a protracted war in which the government is ceding territory. War efforts often stymie citizens into accepting a certain loss of rights and privileges and also afford leaders a little bit more flexibility in terms of having to deliver on campaign promises. However, when these sacrifices do not pave the way for the military gains that are expected in return, then public discontent is sure to rise, which could leave Abiy with a whole other crisis to deal with.
In fact, we have already seen signs of the public losing trust in the PM. By declaring war against the rebels in 2020, Abiy had not only hoped to militarily defeat the TPLF but also isolate it. Yet, far from being shunned, the TPLF is being embraced by regional groups in its fight against the government. In August, the Tigray rebels struck an alliance with the Oromo Liberation Army in a bid to strengthen its position against the government. And last week, the TPLF joined forces with several ethnic groups and vowed to topple Abiy’s government.
In order to avoid surrendering further control and territory, it is high time the Ethiopian government considers alternatives to the aggressive measures that have so far failed to halt the TPLF’s advance and put an end to the brutal conflict. Right now, the most rational option for Abiy Ahmed is to engage in negotiations with the rebels, without any pre-conditions. Once the talks start, the discussions could focus on a power-sharing arrangement between the TPLF and the government, and even entertain the possibility of regional autonomy for Tigray in return for the rebels laying down their arms. In conclusion, unless Abiy’s government is willing to give up on its confrontational stance and engage with the TPLF, it cannot ensure the safety of its future nor can it prevent Ethiopia from descending into more violence and bloodshed.