Socialist candidate Andrés Arauz won between 34.9% and 36.2% of the votes in Ecuador’s presidential election. At this stage, it is unclear who finished second, with some polls placing Guillermo Lasso ahead, and others recording Indigenous candidate Yaku Pérez as the second-placed candidate. Regardless, seeing as a candidate must receive over 50% of the votes or over 40% with a lead of more than 10% over the second-placed candidate, this means that Ecuador will hold a run-off election on April 11, when citizens will be made to choose between the top two candidates—leftist economist Andrés Arauz and either centre-right Guillermo Lasso or pro-environment Yaku Pérez.
Arauz has secured the support of former President Rafael Correa, who was in power from 2007 and 2017. Although he was sentenced to prison for corruption, he remains a highly popular figure in Ecuador, given that he oversaw a continued period of economic growth. Arauz has previously called himself a “Correista”, and has pledged to give $1,000 to one million families.
He has also said that the “current conditions” of the “agreement with the IMF […] will not be complied with, because they undermine Ecuadorian families and a program of economic growth in Ecuador”. The IMF granted Ecuador $6.5 billion in assistance but in return demanded a number of austerity measures. However, the economic impact of the COVD-19 pandemic has pushed at least two million people into poverty and left over 523,000 people unemployed. As a result, the required cuts to government spending and staff and increases in the value-added tax are seen by Arauz as untenable in the current circumstances.
On the other hand, the more conservative Lasso has focused on routing out corruption, taking a dim view of Correa, who was in power from 2007 to 2017 and was found guilty of “violating campaign finance laws”. In this light, Lasso has proposed creating an anti-corruption body.
Unlike Arauz, Lasso favours the austerity measures implemented under the current Moreno administration and has vowed to adopt a more free and open market. In fact, it is believed that Lasso would by and large abide by the terms of the IMF loan deal, though he has expressed misgivings about increasing taxes.
He has also outlined a plan to create one million jobs and a universal health care system. This is complemented by his vision to put $1 billion into the National Development Bank.
In fact, Lasso is running for office for the third time, after losing in both 2013 and 2017. He leads the Creating Opportunities (CREO) party and has partnered up with the Social Christian Party (PSC) this time around. He remains unpopular among some voters who blame him for the 1999 financial crisis, when he was serving as the country’s economy minister. However, he retains the support of “business elites, social conservatives, and the centre-right”.
Meanwhile, that Indigenous candidate Yaku Pérez attracted so many votes is relatively surprising, given that he was seen as a rank outsider. However, his popularity shows that there is an appetite for his anti-“Correista” platform that seeks to ban industrial mining, safeguard the environment, hold human rights violators accountable, and protect the country’s Indigenous communities. Pérez is the leader of the Pahakutik Movement, which is a political arm of the National Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE). The latest results show that the country’s southern highlands are growing increasingly vocal and that this pro-environmental stance is gaining traction even in the country’s more populous northern regions.
Pérez has alleged “vote tampering” and said that the ballots in Manabi, Guayas, and Pichincha have not been accurately and fully counted. In fact, the election council’s own website notes that 13% of polls statements “show some type of inconsistency”, meaning that it is not possible to declare the second-placed candidate at this stage.
Curiously, incumbent President Lenín Moreno withdrew his candidacy from the election due to his rapidly declining popularity, which first began to plummet in October 2019, when he announced an end to fuel subsidies. This move triggered nationwide protests that triggered violent clashes between security forces and demonstrators, resulting in 10 civilian deaths.
Furthermore, Ecuador has a debt of $59 billion, or 60% of its GDP, with its economy contracting by roughly 9% in 2020 amidst a huge drop in oil exports.
Ecuador has also recorded over 251,000 cases of the coronavirus and close to 15,000 deaths, making it one of the worst-affected countries both in Latin America and across the world. The public health system has been woefully underprepared, both in terms of staff and resources, to deal with a crisis of this magnitude, as evidenced by the fact that several towns have seen corpses strewn across the streets.
Against this backdrop, Moreno chose not to run for re-election. In his stead, Ximena Peña Pacheco ran as PAIS Alliance’s candidate; however, she failed to secure enough votes to be one of the two options in the run-off election.
Away from the politics, it was reported that the voting took place “without incident” due to the stringent biosecurity measures put in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19 at voting stations. However, others have rejected these reports, saying that while social distancing was maintained for lines outside the stations, the two-meter distancing requirement was not enforced inside the stations themselves.
Ecuadorians must now wait until April 11 before they cast their vote once again. At this stage, it looks as though Arauz may emerge victorious. If Lasso is declared as Arauz’s competitor, Pérez’s voters are unlikely to flock to the less environmentally conscious and elitist Lasso. However, Arauz’s plan to build an oil refinery along the coastline may cause Pérez’s supporters to think twice before putting their weight behind the socialist candidate. Similarly, if Pérez is declared as the second-placed candidate, Lasso supporters may be enticed by Pérez’s anti-“Correista” platform. Therefore, despite his commanding victory in the first round of voting, it is not a certainty that Arauz will be announced as the new president of Ecuador.
Ecuador to Hold Run-Off Election in April, Arauz Wins First Round, Second Place Disputed
Leftist candidate Andrés Arauz will face off against either centre-right and religious candidate Guillermo Lasso or pro-environment candidate Yaku Pérez in Ecuador’s run-off election on April 11.
February 9, 2021
IMAGE SOURCE: EL DIARIOAndrés Arauz (L), Yaku Pérez (C), and Guillermo Lasso