On March 31, a rogue military unit in Niger stormed the presidential palace in an attempted coup two days prior to the inauguration of the newly-elected Mohamed Bazoum. Although the attack was quelled within a few hours, it sent shockwaves around the region, with the president of neighbouring Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, condemning the incident and declaring, “Coups are out of fashion.” However, is this really the case?
If Buhari is suggesting that coups d'état have become less frequent, then his claim is easily disproven by recent coups (both attempted and successful) in Niger, Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Myanmar, Turkey, Venezuela, Bolivia, Peru, El Salvador, Haiti, the United States, Jordan, and Kyrgyzstan, among several other examples.
It is more likely, though, that the Nigerian leader was referring to what he sees as the increasingly negative perception and declining acceptability of coups. However, even here, his argument falls flat.
In August last year, amid rising public discontent against the rule of Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, the military seized upon the instability and ousted President Keïta and Prime Minister (PM) Boubou Cissé from power. In the immediate aftermath of the coup, regional actors like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU), as well as global actors like the European Union (EU), France, and the United States (US), condemned the coup and called for Keïta to be reinstated into power and for a return to civilian rule.
However, just a few weeks later, all these actors seemingly forgot that anything had even happened. In October, ECOWAS lifted all sanctions on Mali, despite earlier vowing not to do so, after the military junta promised a return to civilian rule within 18 months. Since then, ECOWAS has repeatedly expressed its satisfaction with the military’s commitment to handing back power at the end of the transitional period. Likewise, the AU briefly suspended Mali’s membership but then reinstated it in October. France, too, has held diplomatic and strategic discussions with the junta and increased cooperation on counterterrorism efforts.
Similarly, in January in the United States (US), erstwhile President Donald Trump’s incitement of the Capitol riots in response to what he told his supporters was a ‘stolen election’, was met with swift condemnation from across the political aisle. Then-Senate Majority Leader McConnell even hinted that he might vote in favour of impeachment at the Senate trial. In fact, a number of Republicans acknowledged and condemned Trump for his dangerous leadership. Yet, for all this criticism, Trump was ultimately acquitted of the charge of “incitement of insurrection”, despite McConnell denouncing Trump’s “disgraceful, disgraceful dereliction of duty”. In fact, the now-Senate Minority Leader has since said that he would “absolutely” support Trump if he ran for office again in 2024, despite the former President’s leading role in an attempted coup.
The amnesic mindsets illustrated in these incidents suggest that the ‘fashionability’ of coups, as Buhari puts it, is often tied to how long it's been since the coup took place.
In other instances, it relates to the ability of the actors involved to shape the discourse around the coup and whether they are able to invoke a popular redefinition of the event as a liberation, independence movement, or a popular uprising. Examples include the US-aided overthrows of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and similar incidents across the 20th century in Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, Panama, Egypt, Iran, Guatemala, Paraguay, Vietnam, Chile, and Grenada, to name but a few examples.
More recently, in November 2019, socialist Bolivian leader Evo Morales was forced to resign under intense military pressure, paving the way for right-wing Senator Jeanine Áñez to take control as interim president until the October 2020 election. It is widely believed that this coup was backed by the US, and these claims have only been strengthened by Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeting, “We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it.” This was in response to someone tweeting at him, “You know what wasn’t in the best interest of people? The U.S. government organizing a coup against Evo Morales in Bolivia so you could obtain the lithium there.”
Yet, despite the tacit acknowledgement of US involvement in regime change in Bolivia, the incident continues to be reported in Western media as a popular uprising to overthrow a ruler who was seeking to run for an unconstitutional fourth term in office. However, in a sign of just how “popular” this uprising was, Áñez polled so poorly in preliminary polls that she withdrew her candidacy for the October 2020 election and Morales’ Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party secured a comfortable victory to once again take control of the presidency (with Luis Arce now at the helm).
Ultimately, despite Buhari’s suggestions otherwise, the fashionability of coups remains largely unchanged. As incidents in Mali demonstrate, whether or not coups are represented or perceived as reprehensible acts continues to be influenced by the extent of regional and global actors’ commitment to reversing the effects of said coups and the ability of coup leaders to consolidate power. This paints a worrying picture for Myanmar, which is still reeling from the bloody after-effects of a coup led by the military, or the Tatmadaw, in February. If the Tatmadaw is able to irreversibly cement its grip over the government, then global opposition could die down after a few months of sanctions and criticism, with international actors merely accepting military rule as the new normal. Equally concerning is the dangerous ability of powerful nations like the US to shift the narrative so that coups are not viewed as coups but as liberation. This essentially paves the way for powerful nations to create satellite states through foreign interference and regime change that do not respect the will of the people. All things considered, it is evident that coups are no less popular than they were before and are more than likely here to stay.
Coups Remain ‘in Fashion’, Despite Nigerian President Buhari’s Suggestion Otherwise
Following a coup in Niger, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari remarked that “Coups are out of fashion.” However, coups are just as frequent and ‘fashionable’ as they’ve always been.
April 27, 2021
IMAGE SOURCE: MOUSSA KALAPO / EPA VIA SHUTTERSTOCKWhether or not coups are represented or perceived as reprehensible acts continues to be influenced by the extent of regional and global actors’ commitment to reversing the effects of said coups and the ability of coup leaders to consolidate power.