Citing an unspecified Western Intelligence report, the New York Times reported that senior Chinese officials had in early February urged their Russian counterparts to not invade Ukraine until after the completion of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
The report indicated that Chinese officials had prior knowledge of Russia’s intentions and war plans before the invasion began last week. The information about the exchange between the two countries’ officials was deemed credible by the Biden administration and European officials, and had been shared with allied governments to ascertain when Russia might attack Ukraine. However, it is not clear how extensively the information was shared.
A source familiar with the matter said the intelligence collected doesn’t necessarily suggest that a conversation regarding the Ukraine invasion took place between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Other officials familiar with the case refused to release further details, while some spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the intelligence.
Putin met Xi before the opening ceremony of the Winter Games on February 4. Following the meeting, Beijing and Moscow released a 5,000-word statement announcing a partnership with no constraints. Additionally, both sides condemned North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) eastward expansion and vowed to establish a new global order based on “true democracy.” The latest joint statement had alarmed the West as, for the first time, China supported Russia on matters concerning NATO and European security.
The closing ceremony of the Games was held on February 20. Subsequently, on February 21, Putin signed a decree declaring two Russia-backed separatist territories in eastern Ukraine—Luhansk and Donetsk—as independent republics, and deployed troops to the region. On February 24, Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine with ballistic missiles, artillery, and tanks.
When asked about China’s alleged request to postpone Ukraine’s invasion until Beijing Winter Olympics, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, said, “These claims are speculation without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China.”
However, some American and European officials stated that Putin not invading Ukraine until after the Olympics cannot be a mere coincidence. In 2008, Russia reportedly infuriated China by invading Georgia during the Summer Olympics in Beijing. Russia had been amassing thousands of troops along the Ukraine and Belarus border to prepare for the invasion for months, indicating that the date it ultimately chose to invade was carefully chosen.
According to New York Times, senior American officials also shared intelligence with Chinese officials on Russia’s troop build-up near Ukraine to seek their help in persuading Putin to back down. The officials also talked to the Chinese Ambassador to Washington, Qin Gang, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. At least half a dozen meetings took place between the Chinese and American officials right until the invasion, and in all the meetings, the Chinese officials expressed doubt over Putin’s invasion plans. Following a diplomatic exchange in December, American officials received intelligence about Chinese officials discussing information with Russia and assuring it that Beijing would not hamper Moscow’s plans.
Partly based on Western intelligence report, British officials said the attack by Putin before Olympics was “possible but unlikely” since Putin wouldn’t want to anger Xi, whose support he was counting on to overcome western sanctions.
In contrast, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Bonny Lin, said Xi’s knowledge of Putin’s plans remains unclear. China is currently trying to evacuate thousands of its nationals and diplomats from Ukraine. “Given the evidence we have so far, I think we can’t rule out either possibility definitely – that Xi didn’t know (which is bad) and that Xi may have known (which is also bad),” she said.