After two years and four back-to-back elections, Israel finally has a stable government, one that has successfully removed Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu from office after more than a decade. Eight parties of different hues set aside differences and joined hands in a bid to oust Bibi. As a result, Naftali Bennett—veteran commando, self-made tech millionaire, and ultranationalist—will be the PM for two years, after which former journalist Yair Lapid will take over.
The new coalition, which is an ideologically incompatible patchwork of parties from the left, right, and centre, is also a government of many firsts. For the first time in Israel’s history, an Arab party—United Arab List (Ra’am)—has become part of the ruling government. The fact that the coalition itself is glued together by new kingmaker Mahmoud Abbas’s Ra’am, which has four seats, speaks volumes about the significance of this government. Coalition forming has always been a delicate aspect of Israeli politics and major parties have historically shied away from making formal alliances with an Arab party. The ‘change government’, as the coalition is popularly known, has shattered this taboo.
On June 13, Bennett’s Yamina party became the smallest party ever to appoint a PM, with only seven seats. The new government is also the first one where the leader who received the mandate to form a coalition—Lapid in this case—will not initially assume the PM post. Moreover, a record-breaking eight women, including Yamina’s Ayelet Shaked and Tamar Zandberg of the left-wing Meretz, have been appointed to various ministerial positions like the interior, economy, education, and environment portfolios.
Nevertheless, while the change coalition can boast about these grand achievements, real change can only be possible if it is able to complete its full term of four years. Although many have argued that the government is destined to fail, others contend that the Bennett-Lapid coalition should not be written off so soon.
Aaron David Miller, a Middle East analyst for Carnegie Endowment, argues in Foreign Policy that Israel’s coalition is “more stable than it looks” and might end up surprising the world. Miller states that opposition to Netanyahu was the primary motive for forming the coalition and that is likely to be the driving factor that ensures its long-term existence. He further posits that if the coalition breaks, it could lead to the “political oblivion” of its leaders. He cites the example of Bennett, a former Netanyahu-ally who sacrificed his right-wing credentials to make sure that Bibi did not remain in power.
The incentive to stick together applies to other lawmakers as well. Lapid will no doubt want to make sure that Bennett’s two-year period as PM is successful so that he can take charge for the remainder of the term. According to Miller, Ra’am’s Abbas faces an “even greater” risk if the coalition cannot complete its entire term. Abbas has already been labelled a “traitor” for leaving the Joint List of Arab parties and joining the government, especially at a time when ethnic tensions between Israeli Jews and Arabs have been at their highest in years. Hence, it would be prudent on Abbas’ part to ensure that the coalition does not sink.
Despite the coalition’s united opposition to Netanyahu and its motives to stick together, the odds of survival are not stacked in its favour. By receiving a razor-thin majority of one vote, the very life of the coalition hangs by a thread. Add to this the fact that Bibi is leading one of Israel’s strongest oppositions ever. The ex-PM has demonstrated that he is on a war footing, and has signalled that the opposition is more than willing to sustain a barrage of attacks on the government until it falls. Just this week, the pro-Bibi bloc introduced an unsuccessful no-confidence motion stating that the new government lacked the mandate to continue.
Apart from the menace of Bibi, the coalition is an ideologically fragmented unit as it includes both progressive and conservative members. On the one hand, it has Tamar Zandberg who is a dedicated feminist, environmentalist, and an advocate of LGBTQ rights in Israel, while on the other hand, the coalition has Mansour Abbas and Naftali Bennett. Abbas’ party is notorious for its stance against gay rights, while Bennett opposes a Palestinian state, supports settlement expansion, and has made disparaging comments against Arabs in the past.
There is also no guarantee that Abbas and his party would not seek to part ways with the alliance. For instance, if Bennett takes an extreme position on the Palestinian question or the issue of settlements, Ra’am could leave the coalition, which would topple the government.
In this regard, the coalition has had a poor start to its term. Just days after the government was sworn in, it allowed an ultranationalist group of Israelis to march through the volatile East Jerusalem neighbourhood, which inflamed tensions in the region. Soon after, militant groups in Gaza launched several incendiary balloons that sparked several fires in southern Israel. Israel retaliated by conducting airstrikes on Gaza breaking the fragile ceasefire reached between the Jewish state and the fundamentalist Hamas to end last month’s deadly conflict.
To make matters worse, Hamas has been gaining significant ground in the West Bank as the popularity of the Mahmoud Abbas-led Palestinian Authority continues to fade. Militancy in the West Bank could spell doom for the fragile coalition, as hawkish politicians like Netanyahu could take advantage of such a situation and argue that a government led by Bennett and Lapid cannot ensure the security of Israel’s future. In fact, Netanyahu has already made statements questioning the government’s competency in dealing with threats from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
However, there might be a ray of hope for the change bloc. The case of Maharashtra’s Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition supports the argument that it would be unwise to write off Israel’s new government. The Aghadi coalition, an unlikely alliance of conservative, nationalist, centrist, progressive, and left-wing parties, was formed in 2019 to ensure that the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) does not come to power in the northwest Indian state. During its initial days, it was widely argued that the coalition could not survive, as internal differences would come to haunt it later. Almost two years later, the alliance still stands strong and demonstrates the fact that united and fervent opposition towards a particular group or individual, which in the case of the change bloc is Netanyahu, could be a strong motivating factor for parties with divergent interests to stick together.
That being said, it is highly unlikely that this Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) of diverse groups will survive in the long run. While anything is possible in the unstable world of Israeli politics, the current situation does not bode well for this coalition. With a strong opposition, rising tensions in the West Bank and Gaza, and glaring internal disagreements, Israel’s 36th government has to be extremely wary about the fact that it could break apart at any time, leading the country towards further political instability.
Can Israel’s New Government Survive? The Case of Maharashtra Suggests That It Can
While Israel’s new ideologically fragmented coalition faces numerous challenges, the example of Maharashtra’s Aghadi coalition could provide it with a ray of hope.
June 23, 2021
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin sits between Israeli Prime Minster Naftali Bennett (left) and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in Jerusalem on June 14. SOURCE: AMIR LEVY/GETTY IMAGES via FOREIGN POLICY