On Thursday, during a session of the United Nations (UN) Security Council on the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, United States (US) Secretary of State Antony Blinken once again raised alarms about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. He also called out Russia for its repeated violation of the agreements and then laid out a detailed plan of how the US thinks Russia will attack Ukraine.
Blinken began his speech by accusing Russia of “persistent violations” of the 2015 Minsk Agreements, which were signed to ensure peace between Moscow and Kyiv in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. He underscored that Russia’s military aggression, particularly its 150,000 strong troop build-up at the Ukrainian border, is the “most immediate” threat to Ukraine’s peace and security. He added that the effective implementation of the Minsk Agreements is essential to solving the crisis in Donbas, and that it will serve as a foundational step to further discuss broader security concerns of the US and its European allies.
The top US diplomat also said that despite Russia’s claims of withdrawing its troops, US intelligence indicates the opposite, detailing Moscow’s elaborate plan to attack Kyiv. According to Blinken, Russia will first fabricate provocation to justify its attack on Ukraine, saying the “manufactured provocation” could be done in the form of a drone strike or a terrorist bombing. Against this backdrop, Russia will mobilise troops against Ukraine and conduct cyber-attacks on Kyiv. “I am here today, not to start a war, but to prevent one,” he said, urging Moscow to announce that it will not invade Ukraine with “no qualification, equivocation, or deflection.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin called Blinken’s remarks “regrettable” and “dangerous,” accusing Washington of evoking tensions by presenting unfounded claims. Vershinin told other members of the Security Council that Russia has already clarified the situation, and urged Blinken to not let the meeting turn into a “circus.” The Russian official alleged that talks over the Minsk Agreements are not a part of Kyiv’s agenda, citing recent remarks made by Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk. In fact, Russia has repeatedly deflected blame for the non-implementation of the Minsk Agreements to Ukraine.
Blinken also held separate phone calls with his counterparts from Canada, Poland, and Lithuania—all of which are important members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—wherein he reiterated his support for Ukraine and NATO.
Earlier this month, the US’ Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, warned that Moscow will face “horrific consequences” if it invades Kyiv during a Security Council meeting; in response, Russian Vassily Nebenzia said Russia is not planning to invade Ukraine.
Blinken is set to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov after the Munich Security Conference; the State Department said the meeting will take place so long as there is no further Russian incursion into Ukraine.