The island nation of Maldives stands at a political watershed as the country once again returns to polls on 30 September, as announced by the country’s elections commission on Sunday.
The decision to hold run-off elections follows the top Presidential candidates’ inability to secure more than 50% of votes in the first round.
More than 282,000 people were eligible to vote in the elections, which saw a turnout of nearly 80%.
The election is a virtual referendum over which regional power — India or China — will have the biggest influence in the Indian Ocean archipelago state.
The Candidates
Incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu are the two contenders who emerged at the top of the election results.
While Solih belongs to the pro-Western, pro-human rights Maldivian Democratic Party, Muizzu’s pro-China People’s National Congress is more religiously conservative and views Western values with suspicion.
Although seen as an all-time favourite, Solih secured 39% votes, coming second to Muizzu, whose lead with 46% votes took everyone by surprise.
Opposition candidate Mohamed Muiz takes early lead over incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in Maldives’s presidential election https://t.co/bpD9r40qbE pic.twitter.com/6RHQExgl9p
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) September 9, 2023
The Success of Yameen’s Successor
Muizzu’s candidature was announced at the last moment after the Supreme Court blocked his party leader and former President Abdullah Yameen from being in the fray.
Yameen is now serving a prison term for corruption and money laundering, and Muizzu is seen as his successor.
Muizzu got a paltry three weeks to campaign and still managed to outshine Solih. He is seen as the protege of Yameen’s legacy, whose PNC party has solid pro-china leanings.
During Yameen’s rule from 2013-2018, Maldives was made a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which envisages building ports, railways and roads to expand trade and Chinese influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe.
Some see the election results as a “major blow” and even a rejection of Solih’s government.
With the run-off elections, it remains to be seen if Yameen’s successor manages to grab the apex position in the country.
What It Means for Ties with India, China
The election results will be vital in determining the ties of the Indian Ocean archipelago with its two powerful regional neighbours — India and China.
As against Solih’s strong pro-India credentials, Muizzu has taken a strong stand against the presence of Indian troops in the Maldives.
Meanwhile, Solih has been accused of allowing India an unchecked presence in the nation.
While Muizzu has promised to continue balanced and friendly ties with India, if he wins, he is expected to act on his poll promise to remove Indian troops stationed in the country.
Muizzu’s party has also vowed to reset the balance of Maldives’ trade relations, which are heavily skewed in favour of New Delhi.
Maldives Presidential Election heads for second round as Opposition candidate leads https://t.co/hOeGGRL3uC
— NewsWire 🇱🇰 (@NewsWireLK) September 10, 2023
The election results will hold significance for India and China, which attempt to remain influential in the small state on the main shipping route between the East and the West.
Growing Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific makes the election results more significant.
‘India Out’ Campaign
During Solih’s rule, the opposition with Yameen’s party at the helm, spearheaded an ‘India Out’ campaign.
The campaign accuses the government of “allowing Indian boots on the ground” in Maldives, and thus compromising the country’s sovereignty.
Critics claim that with the signing of deals like the Uthuru Thila Falhu harbour development deal, Male is allowing New Delhi to have troops in the country.
However, the Maldives’ government under Solih has repeatedly denied claims of Indian military presence on the islands.
Eventually, Solih signed a decree calling the campaign a “threat to national security.”
It is against this backdrop and a growing anti-India sentiment that Muizzu’s lead must be assessed.