When Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, his ascent to power was driven by a promise to bring peace and prosperity to a deeply polarized nation, stuck in a seemingly endless cycle of unrest and chronic economic hardship. His ambitious pledges to address Ethiopia’s deteriorating ethnic relations, build national unity, and reignite the stalled democratic process were met with overwhelming support from Ethiopians and the international community, and for the first two years of his term, things seemed to be moving on track.
On the domestic front, the young leader freed thousands of political prisoners, welcomed home exiles, appointed the nation’s first female president, and filled half of his cabinet with women. In the international arena, he helped achieve a long-awaited peace with Eritrea—which earned him a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019—and mediated conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya, and Somalia. In November 2020, however, Abiy launched a military offensive in the country’s Tigray region against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), plunging the country into a brutal civil war, with profound humanitarian and security consequences for the broader Horn of Africa region as well.
But let’s back up a little bit because it’s important to understand that this conflict did not just come out of nowhere. The TPLF and Abiy have always been at odds in their approach to power-sharing. While Abiy has pushed for centralisation and minimising the autonomy of ethnic regional governments, the TPLF, which dominated the country’s ruling coalition—then known as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which was later replaced by a new national ‘Prosperity Party’—for nearly three decades before Abiy’s appointment in 2018 has fiercely rejected any efforts by the centre to undermine Ethiopia’s multi-ethnic federal arrangement. That is because, under the current framework, ethnic groups enjoy protected rights to self-rule, autonomy, and even secession, which allows them to preserve their cultural identities. Abiy’s vision for a centralised system of governance is therefore a significant break from the historical and constitutional reality of Ethiopia, which has many concerned about him potentially sidelining groups into irrelevance and submission. The prime minister has not done well to inspire much confidence among sceptics either, by refusing to engage with the TPLF (who has also rejected merging with the Prosperity Party) and rounding up opposition activists and journalists.
The two sides ended up on a collision course over three months beginning in September, when Mekelle (Tigray’s capital) defied the federal government by going ahead with regional parliamentary elections, which had been postponed in other parts of the country due to the coronavirus pandemic. In response, Addis Ababa classified the vote as unconstitutional and voted to cut funding to Tigray in October, which further incensed local leaders. Tensions came to a head in the early hours of November 4, after Tigrayan forces attacked an Ethiopian military base in the region, a move regional leaders said was taken in anticipation of a federal intervention they thought was imminent. Later in the day, Abiy launched a full-scale counterattack against the TPLF, and within hours a six-month emergency had been declared in the region, with internet and phone communications all shut down.
While the government has since then declared victory in this battle and claimed that it has gained “full control” of the defiant region by establishing an interim government, observers say that fighting is still widespread. On January 31, the TPLF leader and former president of Tigray, Debretsion Gebremichael, said that the party was committed to “extended resistance” raising the prospect of a long and brutal guerrilla war.
The impact of such a sustained and bloody conflict would be absolutely devastating. The violence up until now has already killed thousands, and displaced even more, resulting in the turmoil spilling over Ethiopia’s borders into Eritrea and Sudan, and its persistence could have dire consequences for regional peace and stability. Simultaneously, there have been horrifying reports of Ethiopian and allied Eritrean troops and militia fighters engaging in a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity in Tigray, which have raised international concerns about the detrimental effects of prolonged tensions and fighting.
Making matters worse is the lack of access to Tigray, which is only exacerbating worries of a potential humanitarian catastrophe in the region. There is still a communications blackout, and even though the government has said that it is delivering aid to those in need, humanitarian actors have emphasized that the level of assistance is in no way proportional to the scale of need. Estimates suggest that more than 4.5 million people are in need of emergency food aid, and hundreds of thousands could starve to death. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has said that despite its efforts to work with partner agencies to overcome access constraints, approximately 80% of Tigray remains cut off from any kind of help and assistance.
According to the International Crisis Group, there may be concerns within the Ethiopian leadership that allowing unparalleled access to aid and assistance could be manipulated by Tigrayan forces to resupply and continue fighting. However, isolating the region and its people completely and allowing thousands of preventable deaths would not only be unacceptable and tragic but could also have terrible political consequences for the prime minister himself. Such actions could constitute a breach of international law, would shatter any hopes of winning the confidence of Tigrayans and securing peace in the region by fuelling more conflict, and severely damage Abiy’s reputation abroad.
In fact, international condemnations are already underway. The United States (US), European Union (EU), as well as the United Nations (UN) have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, a withdrawal of Eritrean forces from the region, and have urged parties to ensure the protection of all civilians, including refugees and those internally displaced. The EU has also temporarily halted its budget support for Ethiopia—worth ~$107 million—until humanitarian agencies are granted unimpeded access to Tigray. Meanwhile, the UN has urged Addis Ababa to let investigators conduct a probe into Tigray, arguing that there were serious violations of international law, possibly amounting to war crimes. Unsurprisingly, Ethiopia has rejected any criticism, saying that the events in Tigray were a part of the country’s “internal affairs,” adding that such matters are the “sole responsibility of the Ethiopian government, which as a sovereign nation, is responsible to deploy the necessary security structures and means available in ensuring the rule of law within all corners of its borders.”
However, democracy and IR experts Nic Cheeseman and Yohannes Woldemariam say that even if Ethiopian forces ultimately succeed in eliminating the TPLF, chances for peace will remain slim. Instead, deep resentment about Abiy’s aggression and encroachment on the rights of ethnic groups will continue to fester, giving rise to a new generation of anti-government leaders “who will do everything in their power to resist Addis Ababa”.
This means that regardless of whether the government is able to achieve its military goals, the only way to address the damage done by this intervention and tackle long-standing divisions between the two sides will be through sustained dialogue with Tigrayan officials, both, at the regional and national levels. If the prime minister is really committed to “uniting” the country, he is going to have to convince citizens that he and his administration represent all Ethiopians and not just those who agree with him.
This will require allowing unfettered access for aid actors to reach those most vulnerable and in need, restoring communications, and investigating crimes committed by his security forces. The problem, however, is that it is unlikely that any of these measures will help Abiy confront his crisis of legitimacy. As Tigray opens up, and more reports trickle in of widespread massacres and human rights violations, the international community will be pushed even more strongly to rethink its support for Abiy and its belief in his promises. Countries could hold back crucial developmental assistance to Ethiopia (who deeply depends on it), which would only fuel more disappointment and apathy towards the leader.
The international community must use its leverage to dissuade Abiy from continuing on his current path and potentially completely fragmenting the country. The prime minister’s heavy-handed approach in imposing calls for unity is unquestionably going to do nothing to address Ethiopia’s struggle with rising ethnic tensions, and could instead destabilise the country even further. And given Ethiopia’s strategic importance for peace and stability in the Horn of Africa, it simply cannot be allowed to descend into chaos. Foreign actors must press both Abiy and the TPLF to engage peacefully and continuously with each other to build trust and develop common goals that can help deescalate the situation and chart a way forward. It is clear that compromise is the only way out of this mess, and not coercion.
Abiy Ahmed’s Approach to Tigray Could Lead to his Downfall. Here’s Why.
The PM’s calls for “unity” and vision for a centralised system of governance has many concerned about him sidelining powerful ethnic groups into irrelevance and submission.
March 10, 2021
SOURCE: AP NEWS